Registered Nursing Workforce Rebounding After Pandemic Dip

New study projects registered nursing workforce will grow 35 percent by 2035, unlike physicians exiting the field.

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After a couple of years of unrelenting stress, furloughs, and critical understaffing that drove thousands of nurses to exit the field, the health care workforce is now making a comeback.

New data shows that for the first time since COVID-19 struck, nurse numbers are on the rise again, offering hope to clinicians and patients alike that the profession is recovering from pandemic-fueled burnout and dissatisfaction.

What Happened

During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of registered nurses in the U.S. dropped by 100,000—the largest single-year decline since 1980. This drop came on the heels of steady growth in the nursing workforce. Between 1982 and 2019, the number of nurses working in the country had tripled to 3.2 million.

When the COVID pandemic struck, it placed immense stress and strain on health care systems. Registered nurses were overworked, and in some cases even placed on furlough as medical facilities struggled to operate. The loss of nurses created a bottleneck that limited the care and services hospitals could provide to both sick and aging patients.

RN Workforce Projected to Grow 35 Percent by 2035

The registered nursing workforce is recovering and will likely exceed pre-pandemic levels, potentially reaching 4.56 million by 2035, representing a 35 percent increase over 2022’s 3.3 million, a new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association Health Forum suggests. This projection aligns with forecasts made prior to COVID-19, the authors noted.

To identify this trend, the research team analyzed data from Current Population Surveys conducted from January 1982 through October 2023. Administered by the U.S. Census Bureau, these surveys gather data on unemployment, demographics, work status, earnings, and more. The team estimated full-time registered nurse employment by factors like age, survey year, industry, gender, and marital status.

Additionally, the researchers examined education trends for those entering the nursing workforce. Specifically, they looked at bachelor of science in nursing degrees conferred between 2000-2022, using data from the American Association of Colleges of Nursing. They also analyzed National Council Licensure Examination takers.

The analysis found nursing program applications have increased substantially over the last 20 years, except for the dip in 2022. Licensure exam takers also fluctuated, dropping in 2019 and again in 2022, likely due to the pandemic.

Nurses Stay as Doctors Leave

The increasing number of registered nurses bucks trends in the rest of the medical field, where physician burnout is driving exits.

The pandemic accelerated doctors leaving, with 117,000 departing between the first quarters of 2020 and 2021, compared to 53,000 nurse practitioners in that time. Physician burnout reached 63 percent in 2021, according to the American Medical Association. Post-pandemic, just 57 percent of doctors said they would still choose medicine, down from 72 in 2020.

Organizational interventions are critical to nurturing professional fulfillment and a supportive culture, according to research. Numerous randomized controlled trials, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses have found organizational efforts effective, as per a study published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings.