Even though we saw some good deals and nice opportunities, given the way it ended, overall, 2022 was a year to forget for airlines and their customers. In some ways, 2023 is bound to be an improvement—another massive airline meltdown is a bit less likely. But the crosscurrents of history will continue to bring a mix of the good stuff with some bad stuff.
Keep in mind: COVID isn’t over. It will probably never be truly “over.” Instead, we'll live with it and suffer occasional outbreaks—outbreaks that may even result in temporary restrictions. It’s another uncertainty to add to the list indefinitely.
I see no decrease in upward inflationary pressures on airfares, and, at least so far, the traveling public seems willing to pay whatever it takes. Look for average fares to stay high and likely go even higher. But also look for very low short-term promotions to a variety of destinations. More than ever, if you want to locate these promotions, either sign up for as many free airfare bulletins as you’re willing to see in your inbox or find a good, local, live travel agent to keep track of things for you.
You can expect ongoing labor shortages to keep pressure on the giant lines to be stingy with service to smaller cities. That leaves openings for the smaller lines such as Allegiant and Avelo that specialize in flying from nowhere to somewhere. I’m particularly intrigued in how recent startup Breeze adds routes: I can see a big demand from a bunch of nowheres to New York and other big northeastern cities, for example, but I can’t figure a good New York airport with both the necessary capacity and city access to be successful. Stay tuned.
For many of you, the most important development in 2023—and it’s a truly “revoltin'” development—will be continued devaluation of frequent flyer miles. With so many lines going to dynamic mileage pricing, those opportunities to score great trips at low-mileage requirements will be few and far between.
Although the mavens of the industry keep telling us that business travel will never fully recover from the effects of COVID shutdowns, I’ve seen little evidence so far of the predicted consequential cuts in first and business-class airfares. Again, if you’re interested, sign up for notifications or get a travel agent.
On the consumer protection side of things, many of my advocate colleagues are upbeat about prospects for real improvement this year. Partly, this optimism is based on the knowledge that Congress is more likely than usual to take action: The meltdown was fully bipartisan, affecting both blue and red states, and elected representatives of both persuasions have heard their supporters call for blood.
The near-unanimity about doing something may also embolden the Department of Transportation to do what many of us have been calling out for years, and advocates expect concrete action on several fronts: requiring airlines to seat families together without demanding seat selection fees; requiring prompt refunds and broadening the circumstances in which refunds are mandatory; and making sure that all vouchers issued in lieu of cash refunds retrain their full value indefinitely and can be used for any kind of future ticket—and maybe also be transferable as well.
Beyond long-sought DOT actions, some of my advocate colleagues believe that Congress is primed to pass legislation removing provisions of the Airline Deregulation Act that shield airlines from easy private legal action and oversight by state attorneys general.
For your own trip planning, the current—and likely permanent—elimination of change fees removes much of the risk of buying tickets early: If fares drop, cancel, rebook, and save the value for later. “When you see a good deal, pounce” remains the primary buying strategy. On any trip that includes must-meet departure and return dates, that means start looking for air deals as soon as possible, with enough advance time to take advantage of all the “usual suspects” principles for minimizing risk of irregular operations. Then retain your frequent flyer miles or last-minute promotional deals for impulse travel.
