‘Climate Uncertainty and Risk’

A comprehensive look at the climate change problem, the risks we are facing, and our response.
‘Climate Uncertainty and Risk’
The broader climate is always changing, but the redefinition of “climate change” has effectively eliminated natural climate change from public discussion, according to climatologist Judith Curry. Ronald E Grafe/Shutterstock
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After the Maui fires of 2023, officials blamed climate change. Were they looking to deflect responsibility from themselves and their poor decisions? Is climate change real? Climate scientist Judith A. Curry’s new book “Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response” reports that while climate change is happening, it’s not the apocalyptic threat we’ve been told it is.

As readers will find, Ms. Curry has staked out a position as a centrist in the climate debate. She strives to be an objective writer with over 1,500 footnoted references supporting her analysis. Her book is technical in places but succeeds in forcing us to reconsider what many view as established fact. It was such a joy to read this factual, well-reasoned book.

Judith A. Curry. (Public Domain)
Judith A. Curry. Public Domain

Ms. Curry spent most of her career in academia, most recently as chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology.  She has published over 190 scientific papers, has authored two textbooks, and is co-editor of the Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. Prior to 2010, she publicly supported the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) consensus on climate change. The IPCC, established in 1988, is the body for assessing the science related to climate change.

When Ms. Curry spoke up about concerns regarding inadequate treatment of the uncertainty posed by some scientists, she suddenly became very unpopular with climate activists and some actively worked to discredit her.  She was called a climate denier, which she vehemently refuted, and still remains firm in her conviction that she was labeled this because she asked uncomfortable questions. In 2017, she resigned her tenured faculty position at Georgia Tech.

Ms. Curry is currently president of the Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) and is active in advancing novel ideas and approaches in weather and climate services. She is frequently called upon to give U.S. Congressional testimony and serve as an expert witness on matters related to weather and climate.

Losing the Very Basis of Science

In Part I, we learn that while the public may understand little about climate science, nearly everyone has been exposed to the statement that scientists agree on climate change. Not true, according to Ms. Curry. Quoting Tamsin Edwards, a climate scientist, she says: “Science is always sold as facts, and it’s not, it’s process. And that process is mainly arguing.”

Today, however, instead of many differing viewpoints, a singular view of climate change has drowned out other voices. This singular view was solidified through a redefinition of climate change. The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) now makes a distinction between climate change—attributable to human activities altering the atmospheric composition (mainly CO2)—and climate variability, which is attributable to natural causes. This redefinition of “climate change” has effectively eliminated natural climate change from the public discussion.

Ms. Curry poses the question about whether global warming is even dangerous. Today, natural events have been categorized as climate change catastrophes. She talks about the manipulation of science for political gain, drawing some interesting parallels between the handling of climate change and COVID-19, whereby a false consensus on the origins of COVID was also enforced—politically.

Because of the deeply uncertain, complex, and systemic risks involved with understanding climate change, she advises against having a singular theory. Holding firmly to one position is not the way science should work.

Explaining the Science

Part II helps readers understand the science of climate change. Readers learn how climate research is done, the limitations of models, the range and the quality of data we have (and the data we don’t), and the challenges of predicting the complex climate system. She clarifies the links between global warming and extreme weather events: what we know (and with what confidence), what we don’t know, and what we can’t know.

The sensitivity of climate to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is at the heart of the scientific debate and is covered here.

Dr. Judith Curry at the June 25, 2019, hearing of the U.S. Committee on Oversight and Reform in a meeting on Recovery, Resiliency, and Readiness—Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change. (Public Domain)
Dr. Judith Curry at the June 25, 2019, hearing of the U.S. Committee on Oversight and Reform in a meeting on Recovery, Resiliency, and Readiness—Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change. Public Domain

Rushing Toward a Solution

Part III of the book, Risk and Response, importantly discusses how the Paris Agreement has created a wide gap between ambition and obligation. The agreement has adopted ambitious temperature targets without specifying the means to reach them. She stresses that what policy makers wish to be true is very different from what is possible!

Ms. Curry explains how policymakers and the media have exaggerated the incremental risks from the slow creep of warming. The emergency risks of extreme weather events that have little or nothing to do with a warming climate and blaming extreme weather events on human causes are being used as propaganda to motivate urgent reductions in fossil fuel emissions.

At the same time, this blame deflects from the real causes of our local vulnerabilities to extreme weather, which include inadequate infrastructure, poor land use decisions, and bad government policies and management. In addition, policymakers have neglected to account for any benefits of the warming or benefits from the use of fossil fuels.

Yet there has been little said about the risks of energy transition, including those we face regarding a rapid transition away from fossil fuels. As the world’s population continues to need and desire much more energy, we will continue to need fossil fuels to support the materials required for developing cleaner energy sources. Ms. Curry recommends abandoning the deadlines and targets in favor of providing time for learning curves as new technologies are developed and implemented.

Ms. Curry feels we have used a narrow framework—focusing on details at the expense of the big picture—to find solutions to complex problems. A much larger picture is required to accommodate uncertainty, ambiguity, chaos, and contradictions. She quotes American biologist E.O. Wilson: “We are drowning in information while starving for wisdom.”

Ms. Curry wants climate politics to focus on opportunities that people are enthusiastic about addressing and not have to be bogged down by alarm, fear, and scarcity. She recommends climate pragmatism, which means “moving away from centralized top-down approaches, such as international treaties and accords, in favor of breaking the problem into smaller, human-relevant problems and solutions. She sees this way as a broad path forward for humanity to thrive in the twenty-first century and beyond.”

"Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response" by Judith A. Curry. (Anthem Press)
"Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response" by Judith A. Curry. Anthem Press

An Interview With Judith Curry

The Epoch Times: The very recent United Auto Workers strike exposes tensions between the goal to regulate gas cars out of existence because of fossil fuels and the need for American industry to thrive. Could you share with readers your thoughts? Judith Curry: American industry needs energy to thrive. That energy could come from fossil fuels or nuclear energy. Wind and solar power alone cannot support an industrial economy. Automobiles can be powered by electricity stored in batteries, or by synthetic liquid fuels. American industry, and automobiles, do not necessarily require fossil fuels.
The Epoch Times: Do you think that the consequences of geoengineering to control the climate are fully understood? In connection with that, do you think geoengineering has a sinister side and can be used to weaponize weather? Ms. Curry: We understand very little about the consequences of geoengineering, and it most definitely could be weaponized. Apart from unknown consequences on weather patterns, reduced sunlight would have adverse consequences for ecosystems and agriculture.
The Epoch Times: Could you share with the readers some novel ideas and approaches in weather and climate services that your organization Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has come up with? Also, please include some websites of interest. Ms. Curry: CFAN is at the forefront of incorporating Artificial Intelligence in making extended range probabilistic forecasts of severe weather events. CFAN’s regional scenarios of future climate change integrate human-caused climate change with natural models of climate variability. Extreme event scenarios provide characteristics of regional extreme events over the target time interval and plausible worst-case scenarios of compound event types.
The Epoch Times: Nuclear energy, with zero CO2 emissions, is widely opposed domestically. Why do you feel that is the case? Ms. Curry: Nuclear power provides 18 percent of U.S. electricity; France produces 68 percent of its electricity from nuclear. Our perceptions of risk from nuclear power are at odds with the actual risks, which are quite low. These misperceptions of nuclear risk arise from a well-funded anti-nuclear lobby, extensive unfavorable media coverage, and a mistaken association between nuclear power and the proliferation and use of nuclear weapons.
The Epoch Times: Do you think the UNFCCC should have changed the definition of “climate change”? Is it true that 97 percent of meteorologists believe in this definition? Ms. Curry: No, all meteorologists understand that natural climate variability exists. It was purely a political decision to change the definition of climate change.
The Epoch Times: Didn’t much of the Earth’s warming start after 1850 with the end of the Little Ice Age but before the fossil fuel age? Ms. Curry: We started burning fossil fuels around 1750 at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, but the rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions started following World War II.
The Epoch Times: Do CO2 levels, over decades and centuries, correlate with temperature? Ms. Curry: There are many factors that contribute to global temperature, and atmospheric CO2 level is just one of them. Humans also influence surface temperature through changing land use and land cover, and by increasing the concentrations of aerosol particles in the atmosphere. Natural variations in the surface climate arise from variations in the energy received from the sun and the effects of volcanic eruptions, and also from internal climate fluctuations associated with circulations in the atmosphere and ocean. So there is no simple correlation between CO2 and surface temperature on timescales of decades to centuries.
The Epoch Times: Are today’s CO2 levels low by the standards of Earth’s history? Ms. Curry: There have been periods in Earth history with much higher levels of CO2.
The Epoch Times: Has the effect of greening the Earth been beneficial? Ms. Curry: Yes, greening of the Earth from higher levels of CO2 is overall beneficial for ecosystems and for humans.
The Epoch Times: Is there more extreme weather today than in the past? Ms. Curry: No, overall, the weather in the 21st century has been relatively mild. Just considering the United States, the weather was much worse in the 1930s, with the worst heat waves, droughts, and even U.S. landfalling hurricanes. During the centuries of the Little Ice Age (13th–mid 19th centuries), the weather was much worse with frequent famines.
‘Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response’  By Judith A. Curry Anthem Press, June 6, 2023 Paperback: 340 pages
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Linda Wiegenfeld
Linda Wiegenfeld
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Linda Wiegenfeld is a retired teacher. She can be reached for comments or suggestions at [email protected]
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