Commentary “It’s a false economy that we’re living in. We’re in a bubble.” The man who said that, regarding Federal Reserve policy, was none other than President Donald Trump. He was right then, as a candidate, and he is right now, as president. Trump’s latest dustup with the Fed comes on the back of substantial […]

WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points after its two-day policy meeting concluded Sept. 26, and signaled it wants to continue gradually lifting them through 2019. The move, which was widely expected, puts the federal funds rate at a range of 2 percent to 2.25 percent. That rate helps determine rates […]

If we analyze the consensus expectations of analysts and investment banks at the end of 2017, the conclusion was unanimous: buy Europe and emerging markets against the United States, amid weakening dollar estimates in 2018. It has been exactly the opposite. We’ve already warned a few times about the risk of such a biased consensus […]

President Donald Trump caused a bit of a stir last week when he suggested that rising interest rates are cause for concern. Pundits fretted about “Fed independence,” a concept rendered completely meaningless in the age of quantitative easing. We agree with the president that Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell is “a good man,” yet […]

American hard money advocate, economist, and publisher Franz Pick once called government bonds “Guaranteed Certificates of Confiscation.” In making that statement, he assumed the government would eventually inflate the debt away and thus confiscate the buyers’ purchasing power. Yet here we are, with U.S. Treasury Bonds holding steady despite seven rate hikes by the U.S. […]

The U.S. economy may have a blockbuster start to the year, thanks to tax reform. According to some economists, the tax reform could spark higher consumer spending and capital investments. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to surge to 4.0 percent in the first quarter, according to the latest forecast from the Atlanta Federal […]

In rough numbers and at the end of 2017, leading central banks now own a fifth of their governments’ total debt. The figures are staggering. Without recession or crisis, major central banks have been purchasing more than $200 billion a month in government and private debt, led by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank […]