How Scared Should We Be of Variants?

A variant of a virus does not change so much as to become unrecognizable. Shutterstock

As explained in the video below, viruses are recognized by the immune system via small segments (or epitopes) of their antigens (which can be compared to a set of clothing), and once we have immunity through vaccination or previous infection, our immune systems are able to quickly identify those antigens and neutralize the virus, preventing severe disease and death.

When a new variant emerges, it retains most of its epitopes, even though it has ‘changed its clothes’ a bit via mutation. And when confronted with a variant, the remaining familiar epitopes are sufficient for our bodies to recognize the virus and trigger the immune response that protects us. It’s highly improbable that the virus would change so much as to become unrecognizable.

What about Case Increases?

It is important to note that the role of seasonality has been largely (and inexplicably) ignored when discussing case increases. Seasonality is almost certainly responsible for seemingly sudden increases in cases, rather than the emergence of new variants. This is because seasonal features dictate the threshold of herd immunity necessary to prevent increases in infection.