Harsh V. Pant

India and Pakistan have battled over territory since winning independence in 1947. Efforts by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ease tensions over the past two years have hit a wall as terrorism backed by Pakistan continues in Kashmir. Meanwhile, Pakistan tightens relations with China. Efforts for peace came to a standstill after Pakistan hailed Burhan Wani—a rebel commander who fought for the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir to join Pakistan, killed by Indian forces—as a hero. So India is recalibrating policies, refusing to continue dialogue unless Pakistan ends its role in cross-border terrorism. In public addresses, Modi no longer holds back criticism, especially about crackdowns on activists in Balochistan, one of four provinces in Pakistan that borders the Arabian Sea. Modi’s criticism also stings China, which has made the Balochistan’s Gwadar port a key link in its own infrastructure plan.

Narendra Modi, on his fourth visit to the United States as India’s prime minister, makes a case for strengthening ties between the two nations. The relationship centers on trade, defense cooperation, and concerns about China. “Indian moves towards the United States are driven in large measure by China’s openly hostile acts vis-a-vis India,” explains author Harsh V. Pant. “The Modi government’s initial outreach towards China has not resulted in any improvement in bilateral ties. Instead China’s anti-India posture seems to have taken a new vehemence.” For example, China is anticipated to block India from membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, with its controls over nuclear-related exports, unless Pakistan is considered for membership, too. Modi is intent on India emerging as a leading global power, “not a non-aligned power or a bridging power, but a power that can shape global outcomes,” Pant argues. India requires U.S. support for such a global role, he concludes, and the relationship requires solid domestic support within each country, too.

Investing and trading in the Middle East carry high risk due to difficult political transitions and ongoing conflicts. Like other major economies, India leverages economic clout for strategic purposes, especially to isolate rival Pakistan’s military and intelligence capabilities. India, soon to be the world’s most populous nation, has a minority Muslim population that’s larger than Pakistan’s. The Modi government actively cultivates ties in the Middle East with official visits to the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Israel, and most recently to Saudi Arabia. “India’s ties with Saudi Arabia have grown over the last two decades based on burgeoning energy ties and the Indian diaspora—the largest group of foreign workers in the Saudi kingdom,” reports Harsh V. Pant, adding that “Saudi Arabia is cautious in balancing ties between Pakistan and India.” Pant concludes that Saudis probably won’t break with Pakistan, but “a declaration of opposition to state-sponsored terrorism would be considered a major step.”

Nepal is undergoing a transition, putting forth a constitution after a decade of conflict, political upheavals, and protests along with a devastating earthquake from which it has yet to recover. But the constitution, described as discriminating against ethnic groups that account for almost half the population, could pose more challenges. The country of 28 million people is nestled between two great rivals. India is viewed as too involved in Nepal’s domestic politics, while China is exploiting Nepalese insecurities to serve its own interests, explains Harsh V. Pant, a professor of international relations. China has overtaken India as Nepal’s biggest foreign investor, and in 2014 the country ranked among the world’s top 35 foreign aid recipients. Pant concludes that marginalization, resentment, and interference from larger neighbors could contribute to more destabilization and conflict.

The plain talk of India’s Prime Minister Modi has put the onus on the Chinese regime for persistent strategic distrust between the two Asian giants.

Asia’s leading nations have been slowly coming together to face the challenge of an assertive China. To the chagrin of Beijing, U.S., Indian, and Japanese naval vessels gathered for a joint exercise in the Pacific ostensibly against piracy and terrorism. The rise of nationalist leaders in Japan and India, combined with growing U.S. concern about aggressive Chinese policy, have created new dynamics in the region.