Lots of people still think Donald Trump doesn’t have a real chance of winning the Republican presidential nomination--much less the entire race--but new data shows just how strong a position he’s currently in.
Trump has led the GOP field for most of the past year, both nationally and in many key states.
The fact that he’s not only the national frontrunner, but also leading in two key early states--New Hampshire and South Carolina--along with being second in Iowa indicates that he'll likely win the nomination, according to Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium.
Wang’s argument is based on recent electoral history, which shows that the last several nominees--including Mitt Romney, Barack Obama, and Al Gore--have had similar poll figures in the key early states and nationally (the #1-#2 lead" column shows the median difference between the #1 and #2 national candidates).
