With one exception, premiers in western Canada enjoy a significantly higher approval rating among their constituents than their eastern counterparts, according to a recent Angus Reid opinion poll.
Of all provinces, three of the four best rated premiers were located in western Canada. Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall had the highest approval rating in the country at 67 percent, followed by Alberta Premier Alison Redford at 60 percent, and Manitoba’s Greg Selinger at 46 percent.
The only anomaly was B.C., where Premier Christy Clark has the second lowest approval rating in the country at 30 percent, just ahead of Nova Scotia Premier Darrell Dexter’s national low of 27 percent.
With 32 percent, Quebec Premier Jean Charest narrowly edged out Ontario’s Dalton McGuinty at 31 percent.
The poll results suggest approval ratings can be tied in part to economic performance, says Mario Canseco, vice president of Angus Reid.
“When you look at the way things are compiled it definitely has to do with a sense of economic buoyancy in most of these provinces where they’re doing very well. But it’s also about how they have been able to connect very well with their base.”
Alison Redford was a big winner after the recent Alberta election, according to the poll, jumping 11 percent since March and garnering a positive assessment from three in five respondents.
“It’s a good moment for Redford, a good moment for Wall,” says Canseco.
Canseco says high approval ratings are particularly impressive in Canada’s current political climate, where multiple parties dominate the public sphere and divide voter allegiance.
“When you have four competing parties and you’re [still] at 60 percent approval, it’s definitely a good place to be.”
Opposition Approval Ratings
The survey also revealed a striking contrast in popularity between some premiers and their official opposition, with many NDP leaders showing strong leads over the ruling party.
A case in point is B.C. NDP leader Adrian Dix, who won a 53 percent approval rating, dwarfing Clark’s 30 percent.
Nova Scotia Liberal leader Stephen McNeil enjoyed 52 percent approval, more than double that of Dexter’s 27 percent.
Ontario NDP leader Andrea Horwath received a nod from 51 percent of respondents, enjoying a wide lead over McGuinty’s 31 percent.
But a lead in opinion polls does not necessarily translate into votes come election day, Canseco notes.
“What’s interesting is you have a little bit of popularity for specific people,” he says.
“You get a sense of the opposition leader being popular because of what they’re doing. I think we saw a little bit of this with Jack Layton in 2004 and 2006—this tendency of ‘I really like him but I wouldn’t necessarily vote for the NDP.’
“People like Andrea Horwath, but they wouldn’t necessarily vote NDP if an election were called tomorrow.”
Ultimately the premiers who win over voters are the ones who translate “big ideas” into real action, usually with the benefit of a healthy economy, says Canseco, citing Dexter’s plummet in the polls.
“Darrell Dexter was elected only a few years ago and was very popular as the first NDP premier for an Atlantic province in the history of the country. Now he’s at the bottom of the pile because he hasn’t been able to keep some of those big ideas that they had when they took over, because they haven’t had a chance to enjoy the benefits of a stable economy,” he says.
“Wall and Redford have been able to capitalize and talk about specific things related to growth and energy, but Clark hasn’t been that successful.”
The survey was conducted from May 21 to May 28 among 6,599 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panellists.
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