With Donald Trump closing in on the Republican nomination for president, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) listed a Trump presidency as the sixth biggest risk to the global economy, tied with jihadi terrorism.
— Pieter Nooren (@pnooren) March 17, 2016
The report ranked the global threats from one to 25 with both a Trump presidency and jihadi terrorism receiving the score of 12.
At the top of the list, “China experiences a hard landing” scored 20, ahead of “Russian intervention in Syria and Ukraine precede new Cold War” and “Currency volatility culminates in an emerging markets corporate debt crisis.”
In addition to concerns over an economic “hard landing,” China was assessed as a global threat for its “expansionism” which could prompt a clash of arms in the South China Sea.
The report notes that Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric towards the Middle East would raise the risk of jihadi terrorism, reports The Guardian.
“His militaristic tendencies towards the Middle East and ban on all Muslim travel to the US would be a potent recruitment tool for jihadi groups,” the EIU said.
The EIU report suggests that the Republican frontrunner’s position towards free trade with Mexico and China would have long lasting global effects:
“In the event of a Trump victory, his hostile attitude to free trade, and alienation of Mexico and China in particular, could escalate rapidly into a trade war – and at the least scupper the Trans-Pacific Partnership between the US and 11 other American and Asian states signed in February 2016.”
It continues, predicting that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump, but that could change given a national crisis:
“Although we do not expect Mr Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn,” it said.
The Economist Intelligence Unit is a British research firm assessing economic risk and stability on a global scale. Compiling the list, the firm accounted for both the impact and probability.