On the eve of the May 2 federal election, the latest poll results show that Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and Jack Layton’s New Democrats may only be 5.5 percentage points apart, a gap that has diminished gradually over the past week.
According to a new Nanos Research poll of 1,068 people conducted by telephone, the Tories had the support of 37.1 percent of decided voters compared with 31.6 percent for the NDP, and 20.5 percent for Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals.
With an unexpected surge by the NDP mostly at the expense of Gilles Duceppe’s Bloc Quebecois, Canadians are in for a dramatic election that could complete reshape the country’s political landscape.
EKOS Research, which gives seat projections based on its opinion poll results, predicted Sunday night that the Conservatives will get 130 to 146 seats—not enough for a majority in the 308-seat House of Commons. The NDP are projected to get 103 to 123 seats, the Liberals 36 to 46 seats, and the Bloc 10 to 20 seats. The Green Party is predicted to get its first seat ever in Elizabeth May’s riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands in British Columbia.
After the election results come out Monday night, the country could see a Conservative minority with the NDP close behind in the number of seats. However, if the NDP and the Liberals decide to form a legal coalition, they will swiftly dispatch the Conservatives and take over the government.
“Along with other Canadians, we will await the conclusion of what has been the most exciting electoral race in recent history. If the results resemble our forecast, we are in for another tumultuous period as the powers that be and public opinion try and decide what governing relationships this will actually mean,” says an EKOS statement.
In terms of leadership, Harper and Layton are deadlocked on a Nanos Research index. On a scale that measures public opinion about who is most trustworthy and who is the most competent leader with the best vision for Canada, Harper and Layton shuffled positions between Saturday and Sunday. On Saturday, Harper received a score of 88 and Layton got 97.4, while on Sunday, Harper rose ahead with a score of 95.3 compared with Layton’s 87.3.
