The Race in Georgia Is Close

By Steven Klett, Epoch Times
October 21, 2016 4:20 pm Last Updated: October 21, 2016 4:20 pm

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race in the normally Republican stronghold of Georgia.

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released on Friday, October 21—less than three weeks before the election—shows that Trump leads Clinton by a two percent margin—44 percent to 42 percent.

However, this is less support for Clinton than the last time the poll was taken. In August, the AJC released a poll showing Clinton up by 4 percent. However, since that poll was taken at the end of the DNC convention, the polls have been heavily favoring Trump. 

History

Georgia has only voted for a Democrat twice since 1980, although recent shifts in demographics—particularly in the suburbs of Georgia—have made the state more favorable for Democrats than it was in either 2008 or 2012.

Trump is ahead of Clinton with men, 50 percent to 35 percent, while Clinton maintains an advantage among women, 48 percent to 37 percent.

Clinton is dominating the African-American vote, with nearly 90 percent backing her campaign and just 3 percent supporting Trump.

The southern state voted for incumbent president and home state favorite Jimmy Carter in his lost bid for reelection in 1980. Georgia also voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 when third party Independent Ross Perot split the Republican vote. 

Clinton’s 1992 win in the state was a nail biter, with Bill Clinton gaining 43.47 percent support to George H.W. Bush’s 42.88 percent, and Perot pulling 13.34 percent of the vote—not so far off from what the poll projects between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 9 percent in the AJC poll and 4 percent of those surveyed say they have not yet made up their mind.

Republican Leaning States

With the election three weeks away, Trump’s polling numbers have fallen in typically Republican-leaning states like Arizona, Texas, Utah, and Georgia.

In Arizona—a state that hasn’t voted Democrat since 1996—a recent Arizona State University poll showed Clinton up by 5 percent.

In Texas—a state that hasn’t flipped since 1976—Trump is leading by 3 percent in the University of Houston poll, and 4 percent in another SurveyUSA poll.   

In Utah, Trump is not only contending with Clinton, but also with Independent Evan McMullin who has pulled ahead for the first time in a recent Emerson poll.

That poll shows McMullin ahead of Trump by 4 percent—31 percent for McMullin, 27 percent for Trump, and 24 percent for Clinton.