Syrian soldiers are defecting in increasing numbers, according to U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay. Meanwhile, the opposition remains fragmented and the al-Assad regime still maintains a firm grip on the situation—by carefully managing their political and religious connections in the diverse region, according to analysts.
The grim daily body count delivered by the Local Coordination Committee of Syria (LCC) announced that 26 people were killed on Wednesday, half of them in Homs and Damascus where big demonstrations were held. Two of them were children. The U.N. now estimates that 3,500 people have been killed during the Syrian uprising, which seems no closer to a conclusion, despite pledges from the al-Assad regime to the Arab League to stop the violence.
U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay, warned the Security Council that the increasing number of Syrian army defectors may lead to an “armed struggle.”
“It happened in Libya, it may happen in Syria,” Pillay said during a debate. China and Russia, meanwhile, continue to veto all resolutions that condemn the Syrian regime’s crackdown and threatens sanctions.
An analysis by global intelligence company STRATFOR, states that the al-Assad regime, while under pressure, still maintains a steady grip on the situation by effectively utilizing its loyalties in the region. This may lead to a further destabilization of the region by spreading the conflict.
Neighboring Lebanon is as demographically and religiously diverse as Syria, and the countries share a long and complicated history. Many oppositional Syrians have fled to Lebanon to try to conduct resistance from there, but the Syrian Alawite regime (the Alawites is a Shi'ite Muslim sect) is using its connections and proxies to control the situation, according to the STRATFOR report.
Although the situation is very complex, it is basically a situation where anyone not interested in a Sunni regime in Syria—which many suspect would happen if al-Assad fell, since the Sunnis comprise about 75 percent of the population—will side with al-Assad, openly or covertly. This includes both the Shi'ite Hezbollah militia and Christian officers within the Lebanese army. Factions of the Lebanese army even seem to have directly assisted Syrian government troops in the crackdowns in Rif Damascus and Daraa.
This has led to Lebanese Sunnis mobilizing as well. “When political tensions escalate in the neighborhood, the natural and immediate response of Lebanon’s factions is to prepare for the worst,” the report stated, although there are no immediate signs of tension in Lebanon.
Unless a major player such as Turkey backs their criticism against Syria and starts to directly support and arm the opposition, the al-Assad regime does not appear to be under immediate threat, although it is under increasing pressure, the report concludes.
Another reason why al-Assad can remain in power is that the opposition remains fragmented. In fact, if Wednesday’s events in Cairo are anything to go by, a real schism may have developed between the two main organizations.
According to an Associated Press report, about 100 sympathizers of the Syria National Council (SNC) pelted representatives of the National Coordination Committee (NCC) with eggs and tomatoes as they were entering the Arab League headquarters for a meeting. The SNC has taken a harder stance when it comes to negotiations with the regime, and considers the NCC too soft and ready to engage in dialogue before it has stopped the violent crackdowns.
