Inching back from single-digit deficits in nationwide polls, Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain has leveled the playing field with Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama. According to two recent polls conducted days before the Democratic National Committee in Denver, the two candidates for President are at a draw.
According to a Gallup poll conducted Aug. 22-24, McCain and Obama are tied at 45 percent with a margin of error of 2 percent. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted Aug. 21-23 tells almost the same story, with McCain and Obama tied at 47 percent with a 3.5 percent sampling error.
The new polls show that the Arizona Senator is closing the gap between him and the Senator from Illinois in the presidential race. McCain has trailed Obama in the single digits for weeks leading up to now. Most other polls show Obama ahead of McCain by 2 to 4 percentage points, which is a stark contrast to the 6-8 point advantage Obama had last month. A Reuters/Zogby poll conducted Aug. 14-16 even gives McCain a five-point lead over Obama.
“This looks like a step backward for Obama, who had a 51 to 44 percent advantage last month,” said CNN’s Polling Director Keating Holland. “Even last week, just before his choice of Joe Biden as his running mate became known, most polls tended to show Obama with a single-digit advantage over McCain.”
Of the plethora of possible reasons Obama is losing his grip on the White House battle, one that stands out is the diminishing support of Hillary Clinton fans. About 1 in 10 Clinton supporters have shifted their allegiance from Obama to McCain since June, reports CNN. 27 percent of registered Democrats who support Clinton now back McCain, up from 16 percent. On the other hand, 66 percent now back Obama, down from 75 percent in June.
No Biden Bump
Joe Biden’s VP selection has done little to energize the Obama campaign and rally Democrats for the ticket, according to the CNN/Opinion Research Corp. and Gallup polls which indicate that only about half of all registered voters believe that Biden is an “excellent” or “good” choice for vice-president.
The CNN poll showed that only a slight majority—54 percent—of all registered voters approved of Obama’s pick while those polled by Gallup were somewhat less enthusiastic (47 percent).
Gallup noted that in the last two days of its Aug. 22-24 poll after Obama tabbed Biden to be his running mate, Obama failed to get the kind of “vice-presidential bump” that has happened in recent elections. Bush and Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 all received 3 to 5 percent jumps in polls after announcing their running mates. Bob Dole received a 9 point bump after announcing Jack Kemp as his running make in the 1996 election.
Almost 3 in 4 registered voters nationwide have said that Obama’s selection of Biden will not affect their ultimate decision. 72 percent of those surveyed by Gallup and 74 percent of those by CNN said Biden would neither make them more or less likely to vote for Obama.
On the Issues
McCain maintains a double-digit lead over Obama on foreign policy issues, specifically on Iraq, Russia, and terrorism. McCain dominates on the issue of terrorism, trouncing the junior Senator from Illinois by 24 points (58 percent to 34 percent), according to an Aug. 21-23 USA Today/Gallup poll.
In light of the recent Russia-Georgia crisis, the poll asked which presidential candidate was favored on U.S. policy toward Russia, and McCain won 52 percent to 35 percent.
Regarding the economy, which polled voters overwhelmingly chose as the most important issue that would affect their vote for president, Obama opened a 12-point advantage over McCain (52 percent to 40 percent). Obama was only barely preferred on economic issues in February, when a Gallup poll put his lead as 46 percent to 43 percent.
What appears to be McCain’s Achilles’ heel, however, is health care. Obama’s biggest advantage puts him ahead of McCain 56 percent to 34 percent.
