Friday night brings the second day of the Sweet 16 round and with that, some more intriguing matchups. Here we'll break down the games and offer a prediction. Onto the previews:
South Region Game One, 7:15 pm, EST: (3) Baylor (29-7) versus (10) Xavier (23-12)—That Baylor is even in position to make the regional finals for the second time in three years is amazing considering where the program was after the severe sanctions levied against the Bears that hampered recruiting when current coach Scott Drew took over in 2003.
This season the talented Bears, featuring among others former five-star prospects Quincy Miller and Perry Jones, have been a consistent team to predict. While their record against Kansas and Missouri, the best of the Big 12 and toughest teams on their schedule, was just 1-5 they won the games they were supposed to going 28-2 against everyone else.
In their one win against Kansas two weeks ago, guard Brady Heslip proved to be the difference, hitting four of six 3-point attempts. Heslip followed that up with four 3-pointers against Missouri, five in their NCAA tournament opener against South Dakota State and then nine against Colorado to power the Bears in to the Sweet 16.
Xavier counters with good guard play of its own from senior Terrell Holloway and Mark Lyons who rank No. 1 and 2 on the team in scoring at 17.4 and 15, respectively.
The team has rebounded nicely from the December brawl against Cincinnati. Following that in-game fight the then-eighth-ranked Musketeers suspended four players a total of 11 games. Xavier proceeded to lose five of its next six games and drop out of the polls, but rebounded in time to make the tournament.
As long as it keeps Heslip from having another career day, they are a more mentally tough team and should pull off the upset. Prediction: Xavier 77, Baylor 73.
Midwest Region Game One, 7:47 pm, EST: (1) North Carolina (31-5) versus (13) Ohio (29-7)—There’s really one major factor that will determine how far this talented Tar Heels team goes this postseason and that is the right wrist of sophomore point guard Kendall Marshall.
Marshall’s status for Friday, after having surgery Monday to repair a broken bone in his wrist suffered Sunday against Creighton, is still up in the air and will likely be a game-time decision.
Marshall is key to UNC’s success. When he took over point guard duties last season, North Carolina was plodding along at 12-5 and didn’t have quite the offensive spark that a Roy Williams-coached team usually has. With Marshall at the helm, the Tar Heels won 17 of their last 20 games and made the regional finals.
The team has continued its run this season in winning the ACC title and Marshall has again been at the center of it, ranking second in the country in assists at 9.8 per game.
On paper, Ohio would definitely benefit from Marshall’s absence. The Bobcats main strength is perimeter defense ranking fourth in the country (338 teams) in steals per game at 9.3, sixth in turnover margin at 4.2, and 11th in 3-point percentage allowed at 29.3.
Odds are that the left-handed Marshall will play as the injury is to his off-hand. Prediction: North Carolina 79, Ohio 64.
