The Iranian regime raised eyebrows again in December after their military forces conducted exercises designed to serve as “the war before the war” with Israel and the United States, which it identifies as “The Little Satan” and “The Great Satan,” respectively. While exercises in the Strait of Hormuz are routine, these latest maneuvers come at a time of heightened regional tensions and tightening worldwide oil markets. Around 25 percent of the world’s oil flows through the tiny strait separating Iran from the gulf states of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. An Iranian closure of the Strait, or even the possibility of military action there, could cause a worldwide oil shortage in an industry already feeling pressure from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In addition to its military posturing, Iran continues to ratchet up its violent rhetoric against its regional and worldwide enemies. At the top of their hate list is of course Israel, which Iran dismissively refers to as “the Zionist entity.” According to the Tehran Times a top Iranian military leader, General Gholamali Rashid, threatened Israel and its allies in recent comments related to the exercise. This is the same general who years ago warned the United States to “save the lives of its soldiers” by avoiding conflict with Iran and warned, rather ominously, that Iran’s power is “greater than what’s been revealed.” It is unclear whether this was a direct reference to Iran’s underground nuclear weapons development program, something that has put Iran in direct conflict with Israel, the United States, and most of the rest of the world.
Iranian and U.S. flags printed on paper in this illustration taken on Jan. 27, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)
Despite lengthy and concerted international efforts to contain it, the Iranian regime remains a strong regional power with global reach. Iran is actively assisting Russia with its war of aggression against Ukraine, and both China and Russia cooperate with Iran against U.S. interests worldwide. Closer to home, Iran has also made an effort to court countries in the Americas whose national interests are inimical to those of the United States. As recently as December, for example, Venezuela was cozying up to Iran via international trade in, of all things, oil.
All of these issues are, of course, related. Mutual enmity between Iran, Israel, and the United States, and Iran’s threats towards Iraq and Saudi Arabia, lead to international sanctions. Sanctions lead to military and political resistance by Iran, who then seeks like-minded international allies and alternative economic markets. Strengthening their international position with powerful allies opposed to U.S. interests then encourages Iranian bellicosity. And the cycle continues.
There are, of course, many nuances to the conflict between Iran and the West, with plenty of blame to spread around to all sides involved. However, provocative military maneuvers and bellicose pronouncements by Iran, emboldened by perceived U.S. weakness at home and distraction abroad, run the risk of creating massive unintended consequences. Military conflict between nations that already deeply dislike each other can spiral out of control quickly, and we’ve seen all too frequently the way that disorder in the Persian Gulf region can roil world economies. A better course of action for Iran, and the world, would seem to be to dial down the rhetoric and reduce tensions to set the conditions for a return to the negotiating table. But that does not yet seem to be on the menu for the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Scott Faith is a veteran of a half-dozen combat deployments and has served in several different Special Operations units over the course of his Army career. Scott’s writing focuses largely on veterans’ issues, but he is also a big proponent of Constitutional rights and has a deep interest in politics. He often allows other veterans who request anonymity to publish their work under his byline. Scott welcomes story ideas and feedback on his articles and can be reached at [email protected].
