It doesn’t always have to be an expert who talks fantasy football. See a fanatic provide his wisdom regarding the quarterback position for fantasy football 2014.
The Skinny On Quarterbacks
With quarterbacks, there is always a clear-cut top-tier group, and these players are almost always drafted with close proximity to their projections.
This year, using ESPN’s player rankings, the top-tier group consists of three players: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.
However, drafting from this top-tier group proves a very average move and quite unimaginative because every year there are many mid-round quarterbacks that produce top round value.
Of course, the exception is if you foresee one of the top-tier quarterbacks exploding and becoming a class of their own – a la Peyton Manning in 2013 and Tom Brady in 2008. But with Manning already coming off a career season and nothing to suggest that Rodgers or Brees will have unusually good years, we once again find the real value in the middle rounds.
The reason the value is found here is because these players are often quite predictable due to being projected too conservatively by experts.
Quarterbacks are by far the most ‘exposed’ position in football due to the importance of the position to the team. For instance, after watching only a few snaps of any quarterback, any avid football fan already starts to have ideas on which quarterbacks have that ‘elite factor’.
So, everyone knows what players have what it takes to produce top-tier stats. Often times,these players have yet to realize this potential, or the circumstances are not yet there for them to realize it. So instead, they are projected in the middle rounds, where experts make sure to comment that they have high upside.
Great examples are Tony Romo in 2007 and Aaron Rodgers in 2008; both players put up high-tier stats in their first full seasons as starters.
This was not out of blue, as many people predicted that they would be elite quarterbacks just from watching their play in previous seasons. But before they actually play their first full season, an expert could only project them conservatively. But if you know that they are in fact elite, then they present a great value for you in the middle rounds.
The point is, more with the quarterback position than any position, there is an abundance of highly predictable mid-round sleepers.
So take your favorite sleeper in the middle rounds, and use your high draft choices on value positions such as running back or wide receiver, unless you foresee one of the higher-tier quarterbacks exploding.
With that said, here are this year’s potential steals.
Matthew Stafford
According to ESPN, Stafford has an ADP in the 3rd round — roughly 2 rounds below the top tier QBs, and yet he has the potential to produce stats just like them.
There has been a profuseness of positivity surrounding Stafford this off-season.
The lions were said to have specifically worked on “rejuevenating” Stafford, working on things such as his mechanics and footwork.
First year OC Joe Lombardi has also installed in Detroit the high octane offensive system renowned for being the same system used by the New Orlean Saints. This offense proved to be one of the most effective offenses in the league in recent years, and Stafford has even better weapons than Drew Brees had in New Orleans, including the league’s best wide receiver.
Stafford already had a 41 touchdown season in the past (so we know he can do it), and with all these positive signs, it wouldn’t be surprising at all if he replicated those stats.
Andrew Luck
Intuitively speaking, Luck has the highest chance out of any of today’s young quarterbacks to become that annually dominant, veteran quarterback a la Manning, Brady.
Rationally speaking, all the signs are set for Luck to explode this year. There are questions in the Colts offensive line and running back, while at the same time weaponry in the passing game has upgraded.
In reality, Luck just needs lukewarm improvement in his passing stats, and combined with the elusive points he provides on the ground, you will have a 1st/2nd round value in the 5th round (based off current ADP).
ESPN also notes that Luck has a highly favorable schedule.
Nick Foles
First off, there are definitely many reasons to detract Nick Foles.
His 27:2 TD/INT ratio last year was way too absurd, Desean Jackson is gone, and teams now have an ample sample of Chip Kelly’s offense.
But detractions like these are normal; if these detractions didn’t exist Foles would be an early round value, and we wouldn’t be labeling him as a potential steal.
The fact is major potential still exists alongside those detractions.
Nick is still a developing 3rd year player who put up elite totals last year despite not even starting the full season.
For those who still have not seen this relatively under the radar quarterback play, you are encouraged to do so.
Foles possesses great command of the offense, is poised in the pocket, and has great decision making(2 interceptions)-- all qualities that contradict claims of ‘fluke’ or ’system product'.
Other Potential Sleepers:
Robert Griffin III
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
