The United States is the world’s No. 1 military power, while China is No. 3. To catch up with the United States, China will need to maintain a certain level of economic growth. However, given the slowing economy and the demographic challenge, the Carnegie Foundation expects China’s long-term GDP growth not to exceed 2–3 percent.
“The world is entering a new age of warfare, one in which the integration of technology, concepts, partners and systems—more than fleet size alone —will determine victory in conflict,” according to the Chief of Naval Operations Navigation Plan Update, published on July 26, 2022.
While the rest of the world is raising its interest rates to rein in inflation, the People’s Bank of China cut the interest rate for five-year business loans as well as mortgage rates in a desperate attempt to stimulate a stagnating economy. China faces 20.8 percent youth unemployment, declining exports, growing debt, and slower economic growth. Meanwhile, the population is aging. Last year, deaths outnumbered births. The slowing economy and graying population may derail the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) military ambitions.
CCP leader Xi Jinping’s vision is to modernize the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) by 2035. Ironically, by that year, 30 percent of the population is expected to be over the age of 60. The second part of Xi’s vision is for the PLA to be a world-class military by 2049, capable of “fighting and winning wars.” By 2050, China’s population is expected to have shrunk by 100 million, and 52 percent is predicted to be over 65.
Military power is closely linked to economic power, as a richer country has more money for its military. A richer country is also better positioned to fund the research and development that leads to next-generation weapons and technology.
U.S. Marines walk on the flight deck of the USS Kearsarge in Gdynia, Poland, on Sept. 17, 2022. (Omar Marques/Getty Images)
Currently, the United States holds significant advantages over China across a number of domains. The United States accounts for 24 percent of global GDP, while China only accounts for about 15 percent. In 2022, the United States spent $877 billion on its military, while China only spent $292 billion. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has spent $19 trillion on its military, compared to $3 trillion spent by China. This spending has afforded the United States command and control, as well as overall technical superiority, including advantages in communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. The United States is also ahead in air, surface, and undersea weapon systems.
China is prioritizing increasing the size of its navy to rival the United States. Currently, the United States maintains 11 aircraft carriers, whereas China only has two. China is building ships at a faster rate than the United States and is expected to grow the PLA Navy to 400 ships over the next two years. This would give the PLA Navy more ships than the United States, but there would still be questions of quality and firepower, as most of the PLA Navy ships are inferior to the U.S. ships.
China has 200 nuclear warheads and expects to double this number over the next 10 years. But the United States already has nearly 4,000 superior nuclear warheads with 1,600 strategic weapons. Each nuclear warhead costs between $4.9 million and $8.4 million, while warships can cost as much as $3.4 billion. Modernizing and expanding its military will cost Beijing time and money.
Meanwhile, the United States has several advantages that China cannot buy. Washington is a member of the largest and most powerful military alliances on the planet, NATO and AUKUS, while Beijing has defense agreements only with North Korea. The U.S. military operates and maintains a network of 516 installations across 41 countries, establishing a significant global presence. Furthermore, it maintains military bases in over 80 countries, underscoring its extensive reach and international footprint.
The U.S. military also has an advantage in terms of combat experience. Since the Korean War, in which both the United States and China participated, the United States has fought wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq, while also fighting coordinated large-scale, although shorter duration, military operations in Panama, Grenada, the First Gulf War, and Kosovo. The United States has also fought countless smaller operations in Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Europe. Apart from minor skirmishes with Vietnam and India and some anti-piracy and U.N. policing operations, the PLA has minimal combat experience.
With an aging population and a flagging economy, it is questionable if China will achieve its goal of complete military dominance over the United States. Some experts believe the CCP is holding off on a Taiwan invasion until the PLA reaches a level of firepower on par with the United States and its allies. But during the time it takes to improve the military, the Chinese economy is predicted to slow continually while the population shrinks. Meanwhile, the United States continues to outspend China year after year, making it harder and harder for Beijing to close the gap.
Xi is most likely aware of these facts, so the question remains: Will the CCP make a move on Taiwan prematurely, or will it attempt to wait until the PLA is in optimal condition? A further question is whether or not that optimal condition is even achievable.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
Antonio Graceffo, PhD, is a China economic analyst who has spent more than 20 years in Asia. Mr. Graceffo is a graduate of the Shanghai University of Sport, holds a China-MBA from Shanghai Jiaotong University, and currently studies national defense at American Military University. He is the author of “Beyond the Belt and Road: China’s Global Economic Expansion” (2019).
