The debate has long raged among high school football aficionados. Which state, in fact, is the sport’s true hotbed?
Fans in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and perhaps others would certainly make spirited arguments. So, too, would those in California, who could point with pride to the reality that four of the eight starting quarterbacks in this weekend’s NFL playoff games cut their football teeth in the Golden State.
There is one, Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions, from the Bay Area. Another, Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud, is from Southern California’s Inland Empire. And two, Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills and the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, hail from the Central Valley.
Only one played college football in his home state. Goff, a product of Marin Catholic High School in Kentfield—just north of San Francisco—went on to star at the University of California before being the first overall selection by the Los Angeles Rams in the 2016 NFL draft.
The other three were also first-round draft picks.
Stroud, from Rancho Cucamonga, went second overall to Houston in 2023 following a standout collegiate career at Ohio State. Despite being a late bloomer while growing up in Firebaugh, near Fresno, Allen was the seventh overall pick by Buffalo in 2018 after having played college football at Wyoming. Love, from Liberty High in Bakersfield, went 26th overall to Green Bay in 2020 following his collegiate career at Utah State.
All four guided their teams to victories in last weekend’s opening round of the playoffs and will be looking to advance to next week’s conference championship games, one step shy of the Super Bowl. Two of the other four quarterbacks starting this weekend, Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, played high school football in Texas. Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens, meanwhile, is a product of Florida, while the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy is from Arizona.
Houston at Baltimore, 1:30 p.m. Jan. 20 (ABC, ESPN)
It is mighty tempting to jump on the Texans’ bandwagon after what Stroud and company did to Cleveland’s league-leading defense in last week’s 45–14 throttling of the Browns.Houston, however, will need an even more surprising performance to upset the Ravens, whose fierce pass rush will likely provide an even stiffer test for Stroud. Baltimore led the NFL with 60 quarterback sacks during the regular season.
As the top-seeded team in the American Conference, the Ravens earned an opening-round bye last week after having rested many of their regulars, including Jackson, in a meaningless season-ending, 17–10 loss to visiting Pittsburgh. That marked the first defeat in seven games for Baltimore, which fashioned an NFL-best 13–4 regular-season record.
Jackson, the odds-on favorite to be named the NFL’s most valuable player, is any defense’s worst nightmare because of his unsurpassed dual-threat ability as a runner and passer. As long as he remains on the field, Jackson likely will be more than the Texans can handle.
Green Bay at San Francisco, 5:15 p.m. Jan. 20 (Fox)
Like the Ravens, the National Conference-best 49ers are coming off a bye week that followed a regular-season finale in which several regulars, including Purdy, did not play.Potential rust, then, might present more of a challenge for San Francisco than the Packers, even though Green Bay is coming off an impressive 48–32, opening-round victory at Dallas that was not nearly as close as the final score indicates.
The 49ers’ wealth of skill-position talent that includes receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle, and running back Christian McCaffrey figures to present more challenges than the Packers will be able to overcome.
McCaffrey, who sat out San Francisco’s regular season-ending 21–20 loss to the visiting Rams because of a calf injury, appears healthy after leading the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards and tying for the league lead with 21 touchdowns. Green Bay’s defense against the run, meanwhile, is suspect at best. Love was terrific against the Cowboys in his first career playoff start but will be hard-pressed to generate enough points to outgun Purdy and the 49ers’ league-leading offense.
Tampa Bay at Detroit, Noon Jan. 21 (NBC)
The Lions have rallied the underdog crowd with their 24–23 victory over the Rams last week marking Detroit’s first postseason victory since 1991. The long-downtrodden team hasn’t won two playoff games in the same year since capturing the 1957 NFL championship.Funny thing, though, as NFC North division champions and the No. 3 seed in the conference, the Lions are clear favorites this week. The Buccaneers captured the NFC South, but with a middling 9–8 record, though they have won six of their past seven games.
Detroit went 12–5 during the regular season, including a 20–6 victory Oct. 15 at Tampa Bay. The Lions boast not only a solid passing game that features Goff, standout wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, and rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, but also an effective running attack. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined to produce nearly 2,000 rushing yards during the regular season.
The Buccaneers do not possess much of a ground game, so will likely be heavily reliant on Mayfield being effective through the air. He certainly was in an opening-round 32–9 win over reeling Philadelphia, a Monday night game that led to a short week for Tampa Bay.
To have a shot at an upset, the Bucs will have to control standout Detroit edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson.
Kansas City at Buffalo, 3:30 p.m. Jan. 21 (CBS)
It will have been two days short of two years since the Chiefs handed the Bills a bitter playoff defeat for the second consecutive season. That 42–36 decision came in overtime, with Buffalo never getting an opportunity to touch the ball during the extra session—a development that led the NFL to change its playoff overtime rules and guarantee each team a possession.This time, the teams will clash in Buffalo as opposed to Kansas City. For Mahomes, it will mark the first true road playoff game of his brilliant NFL career, and the local fandom known as the Bills Mafia will undoubtedly provide anything but a hospitable welcome.
As always this time of year, the Western New York weather won’t be warm, either, although there is no snow in the current forecast. Mahomes and the Chiefs had no trouble in bitterly cold Kansas City last week, disposing of the Miami Dolphins 26–7.
Allen and Buffalo, meanwhile, got past Pittsburgh 31–17. The Bills and Chiefs each went 11–6 during the regular season to capture the AFC East and West, respectively, but Buffalo gets the home game thanks to a 20–17 victory Dec. 10 at Kansas City.
Another Allen-Mahomes classic figures to cap the playoff weekend in style.
Prediction: Kansas City 38, Buffalo 34
