Australian football – Six in the Mix
Any of six clubs – from the sixth through to the eleventh – could find themselves playing in, or missing out of, the finals as the Australian Football League fixture draws to a close.
The permutations of results and the ladder shake-ups they could cause are wide and varied in the run home. Anything can happen in footy – bottom teams often cause upsets in the last few rounds as they try to find positives in an otherwise disappointing year.
Victories to St Kilda and Collingwood in this coming weekend’s Round 21 matches and both Carlton’s and Richmond’s chances for a finals appearance are over. However, losses to either of the former two clubs and wins to either of the later two and the battle for finals berths remains wide open. Throw the Brisbane Lions and a slipping Sydney Swans into the mix and we could be set for a corker Round 22.
There remains the slimmest of mathematical chances for the Carlton Blues to reach the finals. They’d need either the St Kilda Saints or the Collingwood Magpies to lose both games with massive margins and to win with equally massive margins to raise their ordinary percentage – admittedly this is very unlikely. Back in Round 13, the Blues’ finals hopes were snuffed out with Brett Ratten, the Blues coach, admitting that their final’s chances were over and that they should just concentrate on development.
The Richmond Tigers, meanwhile, have kept their season alive with the shock result of Round 20 when they defeated the Hawks by 29 points. With winnable matches against lowly Fremantle and Melbourne respectively (both at the Melbourne Cricket Ground), they’ll still need to rely on the Saints or Magpies losing both. But percentage won’t be a factor as the Round 5 draw against the Western Bulldogs will place them two match points up for the season.
In all honesty and fairness, for either Carlton or Richmond to make it to the finals, it would need a miracle – but Brisbane have a realistic chance of sneaking back into the eight. This weekend’s Brisbane–Carlton match will be just one of the hotter ones of this round, but there are better ones on paper to watch.
Match of the Round
There are three! It is hard to say which of the St Kilda–Adelaide, Collingwood–Sydney or the Geelong–North Melbourne matches is the most fascinating this weekend. If the ladder remained unchanged until the end of Round 22, all three would be a preview of three out of the four matches in the first week of the finals series.
The St Kilda Saints host the Adelaide Crows at the Telstra Dome. Both their seasons hang in the balance. The former is playing for a finals berth, while the later is playing for fourth spot and a double chance in the finals series. It’s a farcical schedule that has these two teams playing against each other for the first time this season and only once each year for the last three. In 2007’s Round 15, the Saints won by two points at the Telstra Dome. Adelaide won by 63 points (also at the Dome) in their 2006 match.
The Crows come into this match injury depleted, but having won their last four. Meanwhile, the Saints have been a little patchy, but appear to be finding form at the right end of the season. The Saints should win indoors on the Telstra Dome with the fast surface suiting their style of play; however, the Crows won their first ever-match against Essendon in Melbourne at that venue last weekend.
The Collingwood Magpies host the Sydney Swans, also at the Telstra Dome, with the venue also instrumental in the predicted outcome. The Swans will be looking to bounce back strongly after their expected 39-point loss to Geelong last weekend, but the Magpies should win their third match in a row as they prepare for the finals. Injuries, suspensions and poor form has seen the Swan’s fall away in recent weeks. They’ve won just two in the last seven after having strung together six in a row previously.
The Magpies’ form has been hard to predict this season, but they do match up well against the Swans. Last time they met was just six weeks ago in Round 14. In a low-scoring affair, the ’Pies won by 29 points at ANZ Stadium (formerly Stadium Australia in the Sydney Olympic Park) and have won all of their last five encounters against the Swans.
The Geelong Cats hosting the North Melbourne Kangaroos deserves to rate highest of the three attention-grabbing matches.
When it’s all said and done, it’s about winning the flag; so all eyes will be on the ’Roos, who are on a six-match winning streak. Can they upset the reigning premiers at their home ground and emerge as another threat (alongside Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs) to the blue and white hoops’ supremacy?
In their Round 11 clash earlier this year, the Cats won by 13 points at the Telstra Dome. The Cats have lost one match this season in Round 9 and only two in their last 40, and will probably win back-to-back premierships. The ’Roos may shock the Cats early and they will learn a lot from the game, but it’s doubtful that the Shinboners will win at the Cattery.
{xtypo_sticky}Round 20 Results
PA 10.15 (75) vs COL 16.10 (106)
ESS 10.13 (73) vs ADE 19.15 (129)
MEL 11.13 (79) vs WC 5.15 (45)
BL 13.12 (90) vs WB 10.19 (79)
SYD 14.10 (94) vs GEE 20.13 (133)
RIC 16.9 (105) vs HAW 10.16 (76)
CAR 14.6 (90) vs NM 22.9 (141)
FRE 9.15 (69) vs STK 17.10 (112){/xtypo_sticky}
{xtypo_sticky}AFL Ladder Round 20/22
Teams % points
Geelong 159.1 76
Hawthorn 125.8 60
W. Bulldogs 118.5 58
N. Melbourne 102.2 50
Adelaide 113.0 48
Sydney 112.8 46
Collingwood 111.0 44
St Kilda 102.6 44
Brisbane 101.2 40
Richmond 93.2 38
Carlton 96.9 36
Essendon 86.0 32
Fremantle 92.3 20
Port Adelaide 88.3 20
West Coast 68.9 16
Melbourne 65.3 12
4 points awarded for a win
2 points awarded for a draw
% is points for divided by points against{/xtypo_sticky}
{xtypo_sticky}Round 21
Friday August 22
Western Bulldogs vs Essendon
Telstra Dome 7.40pm
Saturday August 23
Richmond vs Fremantle
MCG 2.10pm
Port Adelaide vs Melbourne
AAMI Stadium 2.40pm
Brisbane Lions vs Carlton
GABBA 7.10pm
Collingwood vs Sydney
Telstra Dome 7.10pm
Sunday August 24
Geelong vs North Melbourne
Skilled Stadium 1.10pm
St Kilda vs Adelaide
Telstra Dome 2.10pm
West Coast vs Hawthorn
Subiaco Oval 2.40pm{/xtypo_sticky}
{xtypo_sticky}Round 22
Fremantle vs Collingwood
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide
Geelong vs West Coast
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs
Carlton vs Hawthorn
Sydney vs Brisbane Lions
Melbourne vs Richmond
Essendon vs St Kilda
{/xtypo_sticky}
