The 94th Giro d’Italia, the first cycling Grand Tour of 2011, is heading into its final week.
Saxo Bank’s Alberto Contador is 4:20 ahead of Lampre’s Michele Scarponi, who is a further 49 seconds ahead of Liquigas-Cannondale rider Vincenzo Nibali. Can either of these Italian riders catch the flying Spanish superstar?
At age 28, Alberto Contador has won all three Grands Tours—the three-week, 3500 kilometer races which are the pinnacle of professional cycling events. He is a three-time Tour de France winner (2007, 2009-10) and in 2008 won both the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a España.
A natural climber who has trained himself to excel in time-trialing, many would say he is the best cyclist competing today.
Michele Scarponi, 31, has yet to win a Grand Tour; his best finish was fourth overall in the 2010 Giro, where he won Stage 19. The year before, he won Stages One and Six.
Scarponi showed good stamina in the final kilometers of Stage 15 this year, nearly catching Contador at the finishing line, but he will have to not only catch but pass the Saxo Bank cyclist if he hopes to stand atop the podium this year.
Vincenzo Nibali, 26, had a big year in 2010, winning the Vuelta a España and finished third in the Giro d’Italia. So far this year he has not proven able to climb with Contador, though his daring descending kept him close at the end of Stage 15. As with Scarponi, close is not enough; five minutes will be a huge gap to make up in the final stages.The Final Stages
Saxo Bank’s Alberto Contador is 4:20 ahead of Lampre’s Michele Scarponi, who is a further 49 seconds ahead of Liquigas-Cannondale rider Vincenzo Nibali. Can either of these Italian riders catch the flying Spanish superstar?
At age 28, Alberto Contador has won all three Grands Tours—the three-week, 3500 kilometer races which are the pinnacle of professional cycling events. He is a three-time Tour de France winner (2007, 2009-10) and in 2008 won both the Giro d’Italia and the Vuelta a España.
A natural climber who has trained himself to excel in time-trialing, many would say he is the best cyclist competing today.
Michele Scarponi, 31, has yet to win a Grand Tour; his best finish was fourth overall in the 2010 Giro, where he won Stage 19. The year before, he won Stages One and Six.
Scarponi showed good stamina in the final kilometers of Stage 15 this year, nearly catching Contador at the finishing line, but he will have to not only catch but pass the Saxo Bank cyclist if he hopes to stand atop the podium this year.
Vincenzo Nibali, 26, had a big year in 2010, winning the Vuelta a España and finished third in the Giro d’Italia. So far this year he has not proven able to climb with Contador, though his daring descending kept him close at the end of Stage 15. As with Scarponi, close is not enough; five minutes will be a huge gap to make up in the final stages.
The Final Stages
Monday is a rest day, followed on Tuesday by a rarity: a mountain Time Trial, 12.65 kilometers, 11 kilometers pure uphill, with a four kilometers at ten percent and a 500-meter ramp of 14 percent. Alberto Contador will be right at home here—a climber and a time-trialer.
His two opponents should do well also, though; the climb is short enough, and not so steep, that they would lose significant time.
The rest day is a wild card; every rider responds differently. Some come of a rest day flat, and need a few stages to get going. It depends how much they ride on the rest day, and how fully they have recovered from the prior stages.
Stage 17, 230 km from Feltre to Tirano, is a medium mountain stage with a Cat Two climb two-thirds of the way through, and a Cat Three in the final 25 km. After the climbs of the second week, this should be no challenge. This is a perfect stage for a breakaway—and it offers no chance for Nibali or Scarponi to take any time back.
Stage 18 is listed as a medium mountain stage, but it offers only a single Cat Two climb near the end.
Stretching 147 km from Morbegno to Sondrio, this will be another stage for a breakaway of riders from smaller teams. The descent from this is twisting and technical, so a very brave (and slightly crazy) rider trying to make a name with a stage win could attack a breakaway here.
If a break reaches the end en masse, the final six km are very slightly uphill, the final kilometer almost flat, and the final 500 meters very slightly downhill; perfect for an exciting sprint finish—though none of the true sprinters will be around for it.
Nibali could use his descending skill here and take back a few seconds, but more likely Saxo Bank would drive the peloton to catch him before the lineThe Final Three: Last Chances
His two opponents should do well also, though; the climb is short enough, and not so steep, that they would lose significant time.
The rest day is a wild card; every rider responds differently. Some come of a rest day flat, and need a few stages to get going. It depends how much they ride on the rest day, and how fully they have recovered from the prior stages.
Stage 17, 230 km from Feltre to Tirano, is a medium mountain stage with a Cat Two climb two-thirds of the way through, and a Cat Three in the final 25 km. After the climbs of the second week, this should be no challenge. This is a perfect stage for a breakaway—and it offers no chance for Nibali or Scarponi to take any time back.
Stage 18 is listed as a medium mountain stage, but it offers only a single Cat Two climb near the end.
Stretching 147 km from Morbegno to Sondrio, this will be another stage for a breakaway of riders from smaller teams. The descent from this is twisting and technical, so a very brave (and slightly crazy) rider trying to make a name with a stage win could attack a breakaway here.
If a break reaches the end en masse, the final six km are very slightly uphill, the final kilometer almost flat, and the final 500 meters very slightly downhill; perfect for an exciting sprint finish—though none of the true sprinters will be around for it.
Nibali could use his descending skill here and take back a few seconds, but more likely Saxo Bank would drive the peloton to catch him before the line
Next: The Final Three: Last Chances
The Final Three: Last Chances
Stages 16 though 18 don’t really offer any chances for a contender to take out time on an opponent. The final three stages do.
Stage 19, 211km from Bergamo to Macugnaga, is a mountain stage with a mountaintop finish. Mild by comparison with the early stages, this will still challenge riders who have been dragging their tired bodies up steep slopes for two weeks already.
Stage 19, 211km from Bergamo to Macugnaga, is a mountain stage with a mountaintop finish. Mild by comparison with the early stages, this will still challenge riders who have been dragging their tired bodies up steep slopes for two weeks already.
The Cat One climb up Mottarone is 15 km long and steep enough to crack riders in anything but the best form—it is perfectly suited to Alberto Contador, but it is doubtful the Saxo Bank rider will need to attack. It is also unlikely Michele Scarponi or Vincenzo Nibali could gain any time here.
The final Cat Three climb up to Macugnaga is not long and, at six percent, not steep enough to crack a rider of Alberto Contador’s abilities. He will not lose any time here. If he senses weakness in either of his opponents, he might attack. More likely he will save his energy for the next stage.
Stage 20 is tougher than Stage 19. 242 km from Verbania to Sestriere this stage features a Cat One climb followed by a steep descent and a Cat Two mountaintop finish. If Lampre or Liquigas want to see their riders win the 2011 Giro, they will need to attack fiercely on the first climb, then the team leaders will need to descend like madmen and attack even more fiercely on the final short climb.
This will be the last chance for Michele Scarponi and Vincenzo Nibali. If they cannot push Alberto Contador hard enough to crack him on these climbs, they will be racing for second and third.
The race ends with an Individual Time Trial, a 33-kilometer route around the city of Milan. The course is flat with a number of sharp turns, but nothing to challenge any rider with strength left after nearly 3500 kilometers of racing. One would assume that the winner of the 94th Giro d’Italia would have been decided by this point, so the competition will be for the lower steps of the podium.
Alberto Contador could actually win this stage, not just protect his lead; he has that capability. Nibali can probably ride a better time trial than Scarponi. If he hasn’t lost a lot of time on the previous stages, he should be able to take second here.
Barring illness, accidents, or mechanical failure, Alberto Contador should earn himself, and his new team Saxo Bank-Sungard, another Grand Tour victory here.
Vincenzo Nibali and Michele Scarponi have both shown some weakness in the mountains in Week Two, but have also made some strong comebacks.
Nibali had had a bad day on stage 15, while Scarponi had a good day, dropping the Liquigas rider from second to third and elevating the Lampre’s leader from fourth to second. Overall, Vincenzo Nibali seems the stronger rider; it comes down to who has the better form on that particular day.Contador Faces CAS Hearing
This will be the last chance for Michele Scarponi and Vincenzo Nibali. If they cannot push Alberto Contador hard enough to crack him on these climbs, they will be racing for second and third.
The race ends with an Individual Time Trial, a 33-kilometer route around the city of Milan. The course is flat with a number of sharp turns, but nothing to challenge any rider with strength left after nearly 3500 kilometers of racing. One would assume that the winner of the 94th Giro d’Italia would have been decided by this point, so the competition will be for the lower steps of the podium.
Alberto Contador could actually win this stage, not just protect his lead; he has that capability. Nibali can probably ride a better time trial than Scarponi. If he hasn’t lost a lot of time on the previous stages, he should be able to take second here.
Barring illness, accidents, or mechanical failure, Alberto Contador should earn himself, and his new team Saxo Bank-Sungard, another Grand Tour victory here.
Vincenzo Nibali and Michele Scarponi have both shown some weakness in the mountains in Week Two, but have also made some strong comebacks.
Nibali had had a bad day on stage 15, while Scarponi had a good day, dropping the Liquigas rider from second to third and elevating the Lampre’s leader from fourth to second. Overall, Vincenzo Nibali seems the stronger rider; it comes down to who has the better form on that particular day.
Next: Contador Faces CAS Hearing
Contador Faces CAS Hearing
A closing note: Alberto Contador admitted in September 2010 to having tested positive for Clenbuterol, a banned substance. The Spanish rider claims he ate contaminated meat (Clenbuterol is a growth-enhancing steroid sometimes fed to farm animals.)
The Royal Spanish Cycling Federation decided not to penalize him, accepting his explanation, but the World Anti-Doping Agency and the Union Cycliste Internationale have appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
The CAS hearings start June 6. If Contador were judged guilty he would be stripped of his 2010 Tour de France title and of the Giro title too (assuming he wins.) He would also face a suspension of up to two years.
Could he have eaten tainted meat? Could he have tried to get away with using performance-enhancing drugs? How widespread is the use of such substances among professional cyclists?
Alberto Contador was associated with, and then cleared of any involvement in, the 2006 Operacion Puerto scandal in which a Spanish doctor was found to be providing performance enhancement to several well-known cyclists (Michele Scarponi got a one-year suspension in this case.)
The Royal Spanish Cycling Federation decided not to penalize him, accepting his explanation, but the World Anti-Doping Agency and the Union Cycliste Internationale have appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.
The CAS hearings start June 6. If Contador were judged guilty he would be stripped of his 2010 Tour de France title and of the Giro title too (assuming he wins.) He would also face a suspension of up to two years.
Could he have eaten tainted meat? Could he have tried to get away with using performance-enhancing drugs? How widespread is the use of such substances among professional cyclists?
Alberto Contador was associated with, and then cleared of any involvement in, the 2006 Operacion Puerto scandal in which a Spanish doctor was found to be providing performance enhancement to several well-known cyclists (Michele Scarponi got a one-year suspension in this case.)
| General Classification after Stage 15 | ||
| 1 | Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Saxo Bank | 62:14:42 |
| 2 | Michele Scarponi (Ita) Lampre-ISD | 4:20 |
| 3 | Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas | 5:11 |
| 4 | John Gadret (Fra) Ag2r La Mondiale | 6:08 |
| 5 | Mikel Nieve (Spa) Euskaltel-Euskadi | 7:03 |
| 6 | Jose Rujano (Ven) Androni | 8:39 |
| 7 | Denis Menchov (Rus) Geox-TMC | 8:46 |
| 8 | Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Astana | 8:58 |
| 9 | Joaquin Rodriguez (Spa) Katusha | 9:20 |
| 10 | David Arroyo (Spa) Movistar | 9:30 |
