Cory Morgan: First Nations Opposition to Pipeline Proposal Puts Carney Between a Rock and Hard Place

The Assembly of First Nations logo, with Parliament Hill in the background, is seen at its 2026 annual conference in Ottawa on July 14, 2026. The Canadian Press/Justin Tang

Commentary

Much of whether Prime Minister Mark Carney’s plan to fast-track economic growth through his Major Projects Office will bear fruit or remain forever aspirational will depend on how he manages negotiations with indigenous groups. The tone from and resolutions released by the Assembly of First Nations (AFN) at its recent annual gathering in Ottawa don’t bode well for the federal government.

While the AFN is an indigenous advocacy group rather than a level of indigenous government, its views are often considered representative of indigenous communities across the country and are taken seriously. The AFN’s stances put the prime minister in a tough position.

There is no entrenched veto authority for indigenous people regarding policies or infrastructure projects. In the Haida Nation V. British Columbia ruling by the Supreme Court in 2004, the duty to consult indigenous groups was affirmed. Still, it was made clear there is no veto in stating, “This process does not give Aboriginal groups a veto over what can be done with land.” The federal government has full authority to approve large developments and infrastructure projects despite objections from indigenous groups. Politically, though, project approval isn’t that easy.

Consultation with indigenous groups is required, but the definition of how much consultation is adequate is murky. Court rulings halting or delaying projects rarely say there was no consultation, but they say that the amount of consultation was inadequate. Years can be lost in court battles as advocates and lawyers debate whether enough consultation has been done. In the meantime, private proponents of projects often give up, and governments may change through elections, which could lead to support for a project being dumped.

If Carney wants to avoid his plans being interminably mired in the courts, he must find a way to garner indigenous support through groups such as the AFN. National Chief Cindy Woodhouse Nepinak has signalled a willingness to pursue court action if the Major Projects Office (MPO) tries to fast-track any projects. If projects aren’t fast-tracked, the office becomes pointless. Canada is already becoming an investment pariah, with as much as a trillion dollars in capital having fled due to the regulatory environment, according to an RBC report. If the MPO is neutered, it will be even more difficult to attract large investments in the country.

The MPO was also considered a gesture of goodwill to encourage a sense of unity in Alberta, where a referendum to consider independence is looming. It is headquartered in Calgary and is expected to assure Albertans that their frustrations over delayed or cancelled projects would be remedied. If the office fails, a sense of futility in the federation could descend upon Albertans, which could be fostered into increased support for separatism.

Another troublesome resolution coming from the AFN gathering was a call to criminalize what they call “residential school denialism.” An NDP private member’s bill from Leah Gazan calling for such criminalization was tabled in 2024 but died on the order paper when the election was called in 2025. A motion to include criminalizing “denialism” within an amendment to Bill C-9 (the Combatting Hate Act) was rejected by the Senate in June, which upset activists. Legislators, for the most part, understand that the definition of “denialism” is too broad and trying to criminalize it would likely lead to the act being shut down by the courts. They still suffer political fallout when opposing such proposals, though, as advocates accuse them of supporting the proliferation of hate for doing so.

The prime minister is currently faced with demands from the AFN that are legislatively impossible and economically potentially crushing.

Carney attended and addressed the gathering and garnered mixed responses from delegates. He offered a First Nations seat at First Ministers’ gatherings, which was widely applauded. His promise to not move forward with projects without indigenous input was met with some skepticism. AFN Regional Chief for B.C. Terry Teegee reaffirmed his group’s full opposition to any pipeline through the province, which puts Carney on the spot. He will either have to override the opposition of B.C. indigenous groups or shut down the pipeline proposal. The chief didn’t show a willingness to pursue negotiations. The government can’t afford to sit on the fence for much longer.

Consultation and accommodation with First Nations are surely on the prime minister’s agenda. The atmosphere at the AFN conference made it clear, though, that the government is going to face some conflict no matter what it does. Carney has avoided any large disputes with indigenous groups since his term began, but his economic plans mean he will have to deal with opposition and exert federal authority soon, or they will die on the vine.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.