Prime Minister Mark Carney has enjoyed a honeymoon phase since winning the 2025 election. With his predecessor having been in power for nearly a decade, Canadians understood it would take some time for Carney to change the trajectory of the government. The prime minister’s agenda was ambitious, and he made many promises. Citizens are going to expect some delivery soon, as economic and unity challenges remain acute.
Usually, the summer season offers politicians some breathing room as they attend positive events and festivals while avoiding contentious issues. Carney is kicking it off by entering the heart of regional discontent at the upcoming Calgary Stampede. Messages of unity from the prime minister are to be expected, but what will be needed even more are some policy victories. To date, Carney has been long on commitments but short on follow-through.
On the unity file, Albertans want to see movement on proposals to expand oil and gas development and export infrastructure. Alberta citizens were skeptical of the MOU signed between Carney and Premier Danielle Smith to get a pipeline to the West Coast, and with little movement on the proposal to date, the skepticism is looking justified. It’s been nearly a year since the formation of the Major Projects Office, whose mandate was to fast-track approvals for new projects. With no Alberta projects being taken on by the office, much less approved by it, the MPO is appearing to be simply another hurdle for the province’s industries. If the prime minister wants to cool the temperature in Alberta, he must come up with some definite announcements of progress on the pipeline file. Further promises will only inflame impatient Albertans further.
Carney’s challenges in getting a trade deal with the United States are coming to a head. July 1 marks a deadline for a mandatory joint review under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. On this date, all three countries must officially declare whether they want to renew the trade pact for a full 16-year term or reject the extension and continue under a rolling annual review process. Trade uncertainty since the election of President Donald Trump has rocked the Canadian economy. If a lasting agreement and renewal can’t be reached this summer, capital flight from Canada is expected to continue. If Carney can announce a binding deal with the United States, it will mark a massive victory for his administration. Time is running out, though.
May showed some positive signs for job growth, but it has come on the tail end of a contraction in the labour market and can’t be seen as a trend yet. Many of the challenges can be tied to the trade war with the United States, but at some point, the government must be able to offer domestic solutions to the challenges.
Immigration remains a difficult issue for the federal government. Measures were taken to reduce the mass influx of students and temporary workers, but this also led to the side effect of labour shortages in some markets and downward economic pressure. Carney has announced that the government is laying the groundwork for a sustainable immigration system consistent with Canadian values. The words sound appealing to citizens weary of problems stemming from poorly managed immigration, but still don’t offer tangible solutions. The prime minister would be well served to present a formal plan this summer, rather than more words.
Opening the public purse strings has never been challenging for the Carney administration. A spring economic update presented a reduction of the projected 2025–26 deficit from $78.3 billion to $66.9 billion, but this was due to higher government revenues rather than spending restraint. Spending has increased dramatically under Carney and is projected to be $67.6 billion more over the next five years than was projected under the Trudeau government. Low interest rates allow the assumption of more debt, but servicing charges remain expensive. Nearly $59 billion will be spent on interest on the national debt in 2026–27.
The Carney government remains popular and is high in the polls across Canada right now. People embraced the prime minister’s messaging and want to see his policies implemented. Public sentiment could swing quickly, though, if Carney can’t point to positive results and tangible actions from his government.
The slack given to the new guy in the office is running out. The prime minister needs some triumphs to point to this summer before the patience of Canadians dries up.
