South China Sea Tension Brings the Philippines to a Crossroads

Filipinos mark Independence day with a protest against continued Chinese intrusions into Philippine waters, outside the Chinese Embassy on June 12, 2021 in Makati, Metro Manila, Philippines. Local fishermen have expressed disappointment at the government’s lackluster stance on China's incursions, and continue to legally fish the West Philippine Sea waters as long as they can. Prior to Duterte's presidency, the Philippines won a landmark case against China in 2016, which invalidated China's claims in the South China Sea within the country's 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone. Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

The Philippine government, which once tried to defuse the South China Sea conflict by wooing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is facing mounting discontent at home due to repeated provocations from the latter. The defense establishment is also increasingly dissatisfied with President Duterte’s concessions to the CCP in the South China Sea.

It all started with the Hague arbitration five years ago. The Philippines accused the CCP of violating the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) by claiming maritime rights based on the “nine-dash line” in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, as well as maritime law enforcement and reef development activities. It then filed a complaint with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague.