NT Election Loss Heralds Tricky Times Ahead for Labor Party: Expert

Griffith University researcher Paul Williams also warned that job losses from AI could be an election issue soon.

NT Country Liberal Party Leader Lia Finocchiaro poses for a photo during the Northern Territory elections in Darwin, Australia, on Aug. 24, 2024. (AAP Image/(A)manda Parkinson)

While the Northern Territory (NT) election result at the weekend hit the Labor Party hard overall, suburban voters very likely delivered the death blow.

Labor had led the NT for two terms before a 10 percent swing to the Country Liberal Party (CLP) on the weekend flipped the script.

The CLP is now on course to possibly claim 16 seats from seven, while Labor has fallen from 14 to perhaps four or five.

Political expert and Griffith University academic Paul Williams said a large portion of the “enormous” swing against Labor came from suburban voters fed up with two key issues plaguing Australia nationally: living costs and crime.

“That’s why you saw swings in the suburbs, much bigger than average swings,” he told The Epoch Times.

Williams says the cost of living is the most prominent and far-reaching of the top two issues annoying voters, even surpassing crime.

“It’s affecting everyone, even the upper middle class,” he said.

“Self-funded retirees are being affected by inflation everyone but the mega-rich.”

Williams maintains that Queensland will likely see a similar pattern play out in the upcoming October state election.

At the federal level, the Albanese government may be able to hang on, but it will likely take a major hit as well.

“The cost of living will damage Albo in May,” Williams said, pointing to a likely minority government.

A chance of an interest rate cut could help Labor in February, just not enough to help the party secure a majority government.

In response to the NT results, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Labor would examine the “implications” but levelled responsibility back at the Territory.

“You have law and order issues, which are the responsibility, of course, of the Territory,” he said. “They were front and centre of the election campaign.

“You had another factor that if you have three chief ministers in two years, which is what occurred, then you have that sort of disruption as well.”

Others Say NT’s Situation Quite Specific

Australian Institute for Progress Executive Director Graham Young said law and order, as well as cost of living had shaped the election result.

“From all accounts the election was fought on the basis of law and order, particularly the mayhem in Alice Springs, which could be partly sheeted-home to the incumbents who had relaxed liquor consumption laws,” he said.

“Cost of living was also an issue, as were Territory finances where the NT government has net debt of $10.8 billion, which would be proportionately like Queensland having net debt of $261.7 billion.”

Yet Young said the result in the NT was not necessarily indicative of patterns that might emerge in other elections throughout the country.

“Polling in the NT is sparse to non-existent, which is not surprising, seeing it is such a small population. And with electorates with 6,120 voters on average, and only a 50 percent or so turnout, you’d be hard-pressed to get a statistically representative sample out of any of them,” he said.

“So it may, or may not, be indicative of a significant silent majority that the size of the result was unexpected with all the pundits guessing a close election and maybe a five to six percent swing.”

Young wished incoming NT Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro “all the best,” saying she would need it.

AI and Its Impact on Elections

Meanwhile, Williams also warned that artificial intelligence (AI) could slowly become a factor in elections.

“The next cab off the rank is the devastation artificial intelligence (AI) is going to wreak on the economy,” he said. “It’s hard to think where it’s going to stop.”

With AI an imminent but genuine threat to jobs, politicians are going to need to think on their feet, according to Williams.

“We’re going to have to come up with new industries,” he said. “Nothing has killed more elections than unemployment.”

Chief Minister Vows to Target Crime

Finocchiaro, 39, is a generational NT resident and lawyer, once nominated for Young Australian of the Year for her advocacy on women’s pay issues.

With crime a pivotal issue in the NT, Finocchiaro says she plans to both get tough on offending, but also work towards setting young offenders on better paths.

“That’s why we’re lowering the age of criminal responsibility to 10 so that young people can be held accountable and that appropriate consequences for their age are delivered, such as boot camps,” she said.

“This is important work that needs to be done and there do need to be more diversion options for our courts.

“But importantly it’s not just about dealing with young people or offenders once they’re already committing crimes, this is about making sure we give kids every opportunity in life to succeed.”

One of her focuses will be on ensuring that children attend school, which will give them a better start in life.

The young mother-of-two also plans to raise the pay rise tax-free threshold from $1.5 million to $2.5 million, which would provide thousands of dollars in savings to more than 1,000 businesses.