More Than Half of Ontario’s Doctors Mulling Retirement by 2030, Survey Finds

More than half of Ontario's doctors are considering retirement in the next five years, a survey by The Ontario Medical Association has found. The Canadian Press/Jeff McIntosh

More than 50 percent of Ontario physicians are eyeing retirement within the next five years, according to a recently released survey that highlights the challenges confronting the province’s health-care system as doctors approach retirement age.

An online survey of physicians by the Ontario Medical Association (OMA) found 51 percent of specialists and 52 percent of family doctors reported that they are approaching retirement age and are either considering or planning to retire within five years.

The findings are raising concern about the future of health-care delivery in the province and emphasizes the need for strategies to address the impending shortage of medical professionals, OMA president Dr. Zainab Abdurrahman says.

Abdurrahman said the number of primary care physicians considering retirement has shot up since last year.

“Just one year ago, the figure was only 39 percent,” Abdurrahman said during a webcast briefing last week about the survey’s findings.

She said news that 52 percent of primary care physicians are on the brink of retirement is concerning considering the shortage of family doctors in the province.

“This shows that the number of family doctors planning to retire continues to grow, and without enough new physicians entering family medicine, the shortage will only continue at the same time, the number of new family doctors coming into the system is not enough to fill this gap,” she said.

The OMA survey data comes at a time when the province is seeking to revamp family medicine under the direction of Jane Philpott, the former federal health minister who was appointed last fall to lead the province’s primary care action team. The goal of the team is to connect every person in Ontario to a family doctor or nurse practitioner working in a publicly funded team before 2029.

Philpott’s appointment followed an announcement by the Ontario College of Family Physicians that summer that the number of Ontarians without a family doctor had reached 2.5 million.

The statistic prompted Premier Doug Ford’s government to commit $2.1 billion in funding for the establishment and expansion of 305 primary care clinics where various professionals such as nurse practitioners, nurses, physician assistants, social workers, and dietitians are expected to collaborate with physicians, enabling them to manage a larger patient load.

But those efforts might not be enough in the face of so many pending retirements, OMA says. The association predicted last year when 39 percent of doctors were considering retirement that Ontario needed 3,500 family doctors to fill the gap. That gap has widened given the number of doctors who are now looking to retire by 2030.

Abdurrahman pointed to a new survey with the Ontario Medical Students Association that found only 42 percent of medical students are looking at family medicine as a career. And just 50 percent reported an interest in comprehensive family medicine, the “cradle-to-grave” care that is a “cornerstone” of Ontario’s health-care system, she said.

“When we put all of this together, it becomes clear the ability for patients to find a family doctor will only become more challenging in the years ahead,” she said. “More physicians are planning to retire, fewer students are choosing family medicine as a specialty. The math is not mathing. It is not adding up.”

Toll of Doctor Shortage

Abdurrahman referenced the report delivered last week by Ontario Auditor General Shelley Spence which says Ontario’s plans to expand access to family medicine has fallen behind.

The report revealed limited family doctor participation in the province’s Health Care Connect system, which Spence said is vital for Ontario to meet its objective of connecting every resident to primary care.

Spence also said just 7 percent of family physicians operating under a payment model that requires them to formally enrol patients were willing to accept patients from the Health Care Connect waiting list.

Abdurrahman noted another observation by Spence that family medicine training is also behind schedule because the government did not properly assess the number of necessary teaching sites.

The auditor general found that the government’s plan to introduce 340 additional undergraduate and 551 postgraduate medical school seats, concentrating on family medicine, was based on a miscalculation regarding the number of people who do not have a primary care provider.

Spence said the province also ignored warnings from the heads of existing medical schools regarding the insufficient number of family medicine clinics available to train medical residents. The result, she said, was implementing 44 percent fewer family medicine positions by the conclusion of this academic year than initially intended.

A family doctor shortage has a snowball-type effect on the health-care system, Abdurrahman said. Without access to primary care, patients’ minor issues can escalate into serious conditions, making emergency departments the default entry point into the system.

“This is not sustainable for patients, physicians, or the health-care system,” Abdurrahman said. “The data we’re releasing today reinforces what physicians across Ontario have been saying for years, primary care is the backbone of our health care system, and if we do not stabilize and strengthen family medicine, every other part of the system will continue to feel the strain.”

Health Minister Sylvia Jones was not immediately available for comment about the report, but has previously said the government is on-track to connect all Ontarians to a primary care giver.

“By reducing the Health Care Connect waitlist, our government is keeping our commitment to connect everyone in Ontario to primary care,” Jones said earlier this year. “We’re going to continue delivering record investments and improvements to Ontario’s health-care system so we can connect everyone in the province to primary care by 2029.”

Student Survey

The OMA doctor survey was carried out online in early October. A total of 540 doctors took part, including 267 who were in primary care, while the remainder were specialists.

The separate online survey of 470 Ontario medical students occurred in the spring.

Only 22 percent of the students surveyed indicated that they were “very likely” to choose family medicine as a career, while 20 percent said it was “likely.”

Twenty-two percent of the remaining respondents expressed neutrality towards the discipline, while 21 percent indicated they were “unlikely” to pursue it, and 15 percent said they were “very unlikely” to do so.

The students were next asked about their primary reasons for not selecting family practice. Thirty-nine percent cited inadequate pay as a leading factor, while 31 percent pointed to administrative responsibilities. Lack of interest, resources, support, as well as respect and recognition, were also significant deterrents.

Nearly 40 percent either “agreed” or “strongly agreed” that family medicine is a backup specialty. A considerable portion of the students surveyed expressed a preference for more specialized forms of practice, leadership positions like hospital administration, or research opportunities.