Dearth of Obvious Candidates as SNP Step Up Search for Nicola Sturgeon Successor

Nicola Sturgeon - who resigned as Scotland's First Minister on Wednesday - waves out of the window of Bute House in Edinburgh, Scotland on Feb. 15, 2023. (PA)

The Scottish National Party (SNP) has begun the search for a new leader to replace Nicola Sturgeon, who shocked the political establishment on Wednesday when she suddenly resigned as Scotland’s First Minister.

While there is no obvious candidate to succeed her, potential candidates include Scotland’s Finance Secretary, Kate Forbes; External Affairs Secretary, Angus Robertson; Health Secretary, Humza Yousaf; and Deputy First Minister, John Swinney.

Swinney was the SNP’s leader between 2000 and 2004 but stepped down after disappointing results in that year’s European elections. He handed the party leadership back to Alex Salmond, whom he had succeeded.

Salmond stayed in charge until 2014—when he handed over to Sturgeon—and led the party during the 2013 independence referendum, when 55 percent of Scots voted to remain within the United Kingdom.

In November, the UK Supreme Court ruled that Scotland could not hold a second independence referendum without the consent of the UK government.

Sturgeon announced in June that she planned to hold another independence referendum on Oct. 19, 2023, but then-British Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejected the idea. It appears highly unlikely that current PM Rishi Sunak or opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer would support another poll any time soon.

The SNP’s national executive committee is due to meet on Thursday evening to discuss the timing for a leadership contest.

Stephen Flynn, who replaced Ian Blackford as the SNP’s leader at Westminster, said a special party conference—which was due to take place on March 19 to discuss the strategy towards another independence vote—should be postponed.

Flynn, who is the Member of Parliament (MP) for Aberdeen South, said the meeting should be pushed back until after a new party leader and First Minister had been appointed.

SNP Party Conference Should Be ‘Paused’

Flynn told Sky News: “The de facto referendum was obviously put forward by the First Minister and we were going to be discussing and debating the merits of that at that party conference. I personally think that party conference should be paused, for obvious reasons.”

“The new leader should have the opportunity and indeed the space to set out their position, their values, and their intentions going forward,” Flynn added.

Flynn, 34, has already ruled himself out of the leadership contest, saying the SNP needed to be led by a Member of the Scottish Parliament (MSP) in Edinburgh.

SNP president Michael Russell said he expected there to be a contested election for the leadership, but said he expected it would be a shortened campaign—unlike the Conservatives’ summer-long contest to find a replacement for Johnson. That race was won by Liz Truss, who herself then lasted only 49 days as Prime Minister.

In an interview with the BBC, Russell also suggested that the special conference on March 19 would have to be postponed.

“We need to take a careful look at the candidates and discuss this positively and constructively to decide who is the right person to take us forward, to take independence forward and to take Scotland forward,” he said.

One of the leading contenders could be Angus Robertson, 53, who was close to Sturgeon and is expected to push ahead with the gender reform bill.

But among his rivals is 32-year-old Finance Secretary Kate Forbes—a member of the Free Church of Scotland who is currently on maternity leave until April. Forbes had previously expressed concerns about rushing legislation to change gender definitions, and could seek to quietly shelve the gender reform legislation altogether.

Sturgeon resigned a month after the British government blocked her attempts to push through radical gender reforms, which would have made Scotland the first country in the world to allow people to legally change their gender based simply on self-identification.

On Jan. 17, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack said the UK government was making a Section 35 order prohibiting the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill from gaining royal assent in its current form. It was the first time since devolution was introduced in 1998 that the UK government had pushed through such an order.

Sturgeon later came under pressure from campaigners, MPs, and Downing Street after they expressed concerns that a transgender rapist convicted of attacks on two women was set to be sent to a female jail. Sturgeon eventually announced that Isla Bryson—who had changed his name from Adam Graham—would be incarcerated at a men’s prison.

During her press conference on Wednesday, Sturgeon insisted the row over Bryson “wasn’t the final straw” but acknowledged there had been “choppy waters” in recent weeks.

“This decision comes from a deeper and longer-term assessment. In my head and in my heart I know that time is now," Sturgeon said.

The SNP’s poll ratings have slipped from more than 50 percent in December 2019 to 41 percent in November 2022, according to the Independent.

The latest monthly average has the SNP at 43 percent, Labour at 30, and the Conservatives at 16.

Anas Sarwar, the leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, told the BBC that he remains positive regarding his party’s chances. “For 12 years I don’t think people in Scotland have believed that a Labour UK government was possible. I think that is changing now. I think people believe a UK Labour government is possible,” he said.

PA Media contributed to this report.