The proposed tobacco ban by the UK government is facing intense scrutiny as concerns mount over potential economic fallout after a free market think tank issued a stark warning today, predicting a substantial £9 billion annual loss if the ban comes into effect.
During his address to the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester in October, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced measures to raise the smoking age annually and restrict the availability of vapes to children.
In a briefing note released on Wednesday, the Taxpayer’s Alliance (TPA) highlights key findings that shed light on the intricate financial landscape surrounding the proposed ban.
According to the TPA, the ban threatens to disrupt the balance of the economy, with significant consequences for both public finances and individual taxpayers. The briefing warns that the burden of the potential £9 billion annual loss could ultimately fall on the general population.
Cost Outweighs Financial Benefit
Christopher Snowdon, head of lifestyle economics at the Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA), told The Epoch Times: “The government rakes in £9 billion plus VAT from smokers every year, far more than smoking is said to cost the NHS. This report is right to remind non-smokers that one effect of the ban on tobacco sales will be that they have to pay more tax.”A briefing paper from the IEA, released at the end of November, also delves into the potential repercussions of a generational smoking ban. The report draws attention to historical examples, including Bhutan’s tobacco ban, which led to a thriving black market.
In the recent paper, Mr. Snowdon predicted dire consequences within a decade if the government proceeds with making cigarette sales illegal.
The proposed ban also continues to stir debate about the credentials of the current Conservative Party leadership as a force for liberty, with some critics arguing that the ban is not authentically “Tory.” Mr. Snowdon also argued that the infringement on personal liberty does not align with the intended health benefits.
Speaking at the release of the IEA’s paper, he said: “The absurdities of a generational tobacco ban will become apparent as soon as the first group of teenagers turns 18 in 2026. The problems of enforcement, criminality, and dwindling tax revenues will emerge more slowly but inexorably.
Poll Shows Public Disagreement
Meanwhile, a recent poll commissioned by smoker-rights group Forest, from Yonder Consulting, sheds light on public sentiment regarding the proposed ban. The survey revealed that 58 percent of respondents believe individuals aged 18, who can vote, buy alcohol, drive a car, or have a credit card, should also be allowed to purchase tobacco.Less than a third of respondents think that 18-year-olds should not have the right to smoke.
In October, Rupert Lewis, the director of the Tobacco Manufacturers’ Association, stated that the proposed generational ban constitutes a “disproportionate attack” on the rights of adults to enjoy tobacco legally.
Speaking to The Epoch Times via email, Mr. Lewis argued that banning a category of “future adults” from purchasing tobacco would incentivize consumers to turn to unregulated, untaxed products, fueling the illegal tobacco trade.
Mr. Lewis said: “Banning a category of ‘future adults’ from purchasing tobacco products is another wholly disproportionate attack on the rights of adults to enjoy a legal, legitimate product.
“Such a ban will only further incentivise consumers to move away from purchasing legal, tax-paid products, to unregulated and untaxed products, fuelling the criminal trade in illegal tobacco.”
The Epoch Times has contacted Number 10 for comment.
