Reform Voters’ Focus on Immigration Indicates Tories Should Be ‘Nervous,’ Says Pollster

Reform UK leader Richard Tice outside the BBC in London, on Nov. 26, 2023. (Jordan Pettitt/PA)

A prominent pollster has warned the Tory party should be “nervous,” after a survey he released on Monday revealed immigration as the key driver behind Reform UK’s swift rise to popularity among former Conservative voters.

Conducted on behalf of the Legatum Institute and surveying 3,400 prospective Reform UK voters for the next general election, Matthew Goodwin’s research indicates the party predominantly appeals to middle-aged and elderly individuals, mainly residing outside London and Scotland.

These groups, primarily Conservative backers in 2019 and Brexit supporters in 2016, cite immigration concerns as pivotal to their voting intentions.

“The Reform Party is drawing together a significant, distinctive following of voters who share intense concerns about immigration, both illegal and legal,” Mr. Goodwin told The Epoch Times.

The survey found that more than three-quarters of these voters are over 44 years old, with the largest group being 65 or older, revealing a demographic that tends to value a pre-EU Britain and is deeply concerned about mass immigration and its implications.

Over Two Thirds of Reform Voters Are Ex-Tory

Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed voted Conservative in the last election, and 86 percent supported Brexit.

Mr. Goodwin added: “What these results show is that the Reform Party is drawing together a significant, distinctive following of voters who share intense concerns about immigration. Both illegal and legal. Globalisation, net zero, and the direction of British society, many Reform voters are deeply pessimistic about where Britain is heading.”

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He continued, “They believe strongly that the small boats should be stopped, and overall levels of legal migration should be lowered. And they feel very disillusioned with the established parties, notably the Conservatives, on those issues. This is the largest, most comprehensive survey of foreign party voters to date.”

Mr. Goodwin added that the results were one reason why the Conservatives “should be very nervous ahead of the looming general election.”

Poll Forecasts Historic Tory Low

The news comes after polling by Survation, released in The Times last weekend, forecasts a historic low for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives in the upcoming general election.

The poll, revealing a potential Labour landslide with 468 seats, shows the Conservatives trailing at 26 percent, with a complete wipeout in Scotland and Wales. Reform UK, led by Richard Tice, is expected to significantly influence several constituencies, potentially securing 8.5 percent of the overall vote and achieving several second-placed finishes. This shift threatens the seats of several Conservative grandees, including Mr. Sunak.

On Monday, Mr. Goodwin posted on his Substack channel: “Even without Nigel Farage at the helm, this new revolt on the right, led by Richard Tice, not only looks set to ensure Rishi Sunak and the Tories suffer a humiliating defeat at the looming general election but increasingly looks like it might usher in a much wider realignment of the right in British politics.”

Public Discontent Over Immigration at All-Time High

David Moore, a senior political analyst at the ‘small-c’ conservative think tank Orthodox Conservatives, told The Epoch Times: “Conservatives need to get hard on immigration and understand they must pull out all the stops with the majority they have left. As a Conservative, I expect Conservative policies.

“That means strong border controls, leaving the ECHR [European Court of Human Rights], increased defence spending, tackling our high tax economy, empowering families and improving their access to housing and tax credit, and reforming the civil service to reclaim the institutions lost to the Left.

“If we tackle these issues head-on, [the Tory Party] will, without shock, regain the  apathetic voter base.”

On March 25, a survey released by think tank British Future marked the highest level of public discontent in government immigration policy since before the EU referendum in 2016.

According to the survey conducted by Ipsos and British Future, 69 percent of Britons are unhappy with the current approach to immigration, with only 9 percent expressing satisfaction. Among current Conservative supporters, satisfaction plummets to just 16 percent, and even further to 8 percent among those who voted for the party in 2019.

Steve Ballinger, director of communications for British Future, told The Epoch Times: “Immigration is the number three issue for those who plan to vote Conservative, behind the NHS and cost of living. That’s a much higher priority than for Labour supporters, for whom it ranks 12th, but this still won’t be an ‘immigration election’ for most Tories.

“For the public as a whole, Labour is now more trusted than the Conservatives on immigration, so driving up the salience of the issue yet further may be a risky strategy for the government.”

Respondents’ opinions on political preferences reveal that the Labour Party is more trusted than the Conservatives to have the right overall immigration policies, with Reform UK also ahead of the Conservatives behind Labour. Among politicians, Mr. Sunak faced the highest level of distrust on immigration issues.