The Conservative Party holds just 20 percent of national support, according to polling by YouGov, handing Labour its biggest lead since Liz Truss was prime minister, as Reform UK closed to just 8 points behind the Tories.
In the most recent YouGov Westminster voting intention figures, unveiled last night after a key parliamentary vote on the Rwanda bill, the Conservatives faced a two-point decrease from the previous survey conducted from Jan. 10–11.
Conversely, Labour experienced an uptick, securing 47 percent of the vote, representing a two-point increase and a 27 point lead overall.
‘Onwards and Upwards’
Reacting to the poll, Richard Tice, leader of Reform UK, told The Epoch Times, “Onwards and upwards, next stop 15 percent!”The party, which formed from the Brexit Party and was spearheaded by Nigel Farage, has been consistently rising in recent months, marking a significant headache for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s party.
According to polling by Redfield & Wilton Strategies earlier this month, 15 percent of former Conservative voters now indicate a preference for Labour, while an additional 15 percent are leaning towards supporting Reform UK if an election were to take place tomorrow.
Several voices in the Tory party have suggested that weak leadership could be the problem with the party’s performance in recent months, with MP Andrea Jenkyns revealing last weekend that she had submitted a letter of no-confidence.
David Campbell Bannerman, former Tory MEP and the chairman of the Conservative Democratic Organisation (CDO), told The Epoch Times: “Whereas Commons votes carry the threat of removing the whip for MPs, a letter of no confidence doesn’t. The polls can hardly be much worse so any downside of removing another prime minister—especially one elected by neither members nor any MPs—is minimal. We need to steer clear of the cliff edge.”
Mr. Campbell Bannerman’s organisation, headed by key former Prime Minister Boris Johnson loyalist and major Tory donor, Peter Cruddas, aims to push for greater democracy in the way the Tory party elects its candidates.
The CDO had been in close conversation with key Tory rebel MPs ahead of the vote on Wednesday, with members expressing discontent over the outcome.
Rwanda Labelled a ‘Waste of Time’
The vote in the Commons on Wednesday evening revealed 320 MPs in favour of the government’s Safety of Rwanda bill and 276 against. Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick had led a revolt earlier on Wednesday, backed by 61 Tory MPs, attempting to toughen the bill over immigration law. However, a majority of rebels eventually signalled readiness to support it unaltered, fearing the ramifications of a government defeat so close to an imminent general election.Reacting to the Tory immigration battle that reached its conclusion in the Commons on Wednesday with a win for Mr. Sunak’s government, Mr. Tice labelled the Tories as “spineless” and added that they had “huffed and puffed then bottled it.”
2nd Poll Shows Slump in Public Confidence
An Ipsos UK poll released on Thursday also suggested that public sentiment towards the Tories has reached its lowest level since Ms. Truss’s tenure in Number 10. The survey indicates that just a quarter of the public express confidence in the Conservatives’ ability to provide “strong and stable leadership,” with a significant 70 percent expressing the opposite view.These figures also closely mirror the public sentiment just before Ms. Truss’s departure in October 2022 when 71 percent lacked confidence in the Tories’ leadership. This decline in confidence also signifies a regression from the period following the start of Mr. Sunak’s leadership.
After Ms. Truss’s replacement by Mr. Sunak, the proportion of individuals lacking confidence in the party decreased to 54 percent. However, over the past year this number has once again ascended, highlighting a challenging period for the Conservative Party and raising questions about the effectiveness of its leadership in the eyes of the public, as well as its membership.
In other party standings highlighted by the YouGov poll on Thursday, the Liberal Democrats claimed 8 percent of the vote, reflecting a marginal increase of one point, while the Greens saw a slight dip to 7 percent, down by one point.
