Trump Still Beats Biden Even If Convicted in Most Criminal Cases: Poll

President Joe Biden. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images) / Former president Donald Trump. (John Fredricks/The Epoch Times)

Former President Donald Trump would beat President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential matchup even if convicted in two out of three major criminal legal challenges he is facing, according to a new poll.

A resounding win in the Iowa caucuses has given the former president some lift nationally, with President Trump now polling 2.9 points ahead of President Joe Biden, according to the latest RealClear polling average in that hypothetical matchup.

But a new poll conducted by HarrisX for the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University shows that President Trump would still beat President Biden even if he is convicted on federal charges of mishandling classified documents or on allegations of conspiring to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, which President Trump says is a mischaracterization of his requests to have an independent audit to address voter concerns.

The only conviction that would cause President Trump to cede the lead to President Biden is if the former president is convicted of inciting the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.

Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald J. Trump dances after speaking at a rally in Manchester, N.H., on Jan. 20, 2024. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)

Classified Documents Case

In the classified documents case, special counsel Jack Smith has accused President Trump of retaining sensitive government materials, including some that were marked top secret, at his Mar-a-Lago home.

President Trump has said he used his presidential authority to declassify all the relevant documents in the case against him and has denied that he hid any materials from the government.

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Originally, Mr. Smith indicted the 45th president on 37 counts in connection with allegations that President Trump willfully retained classified documents, obstructed justice, and made false statements. At the time, President Trump denounced the charges as politically motivated and labeled the case the “box hoax.”

Later, Mr. Smith’s team added three new felony charges related to allegations that President Trump conspired with his staff to delete some security footage so that the grand jury would not see all the evidence, with the former president pleading not guilty.

Special counsel Jack Smith speaks to members of the media at the US Department of Justice building in Washington, on Aug. 1, 2023. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)

The HarrisX/Harvard poll asked three groups of voters (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents) if they would vote for President Trump if he’s convicted of crimes related to allegations of mishandling sensitive documents from his presidency.

Overall, 53 percent said they would vote for the former president and, crucially, 51 percent of Independent voters said the same. At the same time, 91 percent of Republican voters said they'd still vote for him if convicted, compared to 16 percent of Democrats.

Georgia Election Interference Case

President Trump, and 18 others, have been accused of being part of a criminal organization that sought to overturn the Georgia results of the 2020 presidential election by alleged unlawful means.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis brought the case against President Trump and the other co-defendants under Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act, a law drafted to fight organized crime.

President Trump has denied any wrongdoing, accusing Ms. Willis of corruption and the case of being a “witch hunt” meant to derail his 2024 comeback bid for the White House.

Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis and Fulton County District Attorney Special Prosecutor Nathan Wade (R) at a press conference in the Fulton County Government Center after a grand jury voted to indict former President Donald Trump and 18 others, in Atlanta on Aug. 14, 2023. (Christian Monterrosa/AFP via Getty Images)

The HarrisX/Harvard poll asked voters if they'd still vote for President Trump if he were to be convicted of crimes related to trying to influence the 2020 election results in Georgia.

Overall, 51 percent said they would vote for the former president, including 53 percent of Independents. Meanwhile, 84 percent of Republican voters said they'd still vote for him if convicted in this case, compared to 18 percent of Democrats.

Jan. 6 Case

Mr. Smith brought this case against the former president on charges of conspiring to criminally obstruct Congress from counting electoral votes in 2021.

A grand jury indicted President Trump for obstruction of an official proceeding, attempting to obstruct an official proceeding, and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, among other counts.

President Trump has said that the case is politically motivated.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan has paused court proceedings in this case, pending his appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court to dismiss the case entirely based on presidential immunity.

(L) Special counsel Jack Smith. (C) U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan. (R) Former President Donald Trump. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images; Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts via AP; Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The HarrisX/Harvard poll asked three groups of voters (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents) if they would vote for President Trump if he’s convicted of crimes related to allegations of incitement of riots on Jan. 6, 2021.

Overall, 48 percent said they would vote for the former president, with that figure rising to 50 percent for Independent voters. At the same time, 89 percent of Republican voters said they'd still vote for him if convicted, compared to just 8 percent of Democrats.

Overall, President Trump faces an array of legal troubles, which include a total of 91 felony counts across state and federal jurisdictions, coupled with a civil suit in New York that could reshape his business landscape.