Trump Appears to Be Only Republican Who Can Beat Biden, Other Dems: Pollsters

(Left) President Joe Biden gives a thumbs up as he leaves St. Edmond Roman Catholic Church in Rehoboth Beach, Del., on Nov. 4, 2023. (Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images); (Right) Former President Donald Trump looks on during a campaign rally at Trendsetter Engineering Inc. in Houston, Texas, on Nov. 2, 2023. (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

A new, large survey of would-be voters backs up a conclusion that pollster Rich Baris reached months ago: former President Donald Trump represents Republicans’ best bet for victory in the 2024 presidential election.

“There are few things we can be sure of at this point. But one of them is that Donald Trump is the only Republican candidate who can win the Electoral College,” Mr. Baris, director of Big Data Poll, told The Epoch Times on Nov. 14.

Mr. Baris bases his opinion on polling data that he and others compiled, coupled with voters’ statements and their patterns of behavior.

This week’s widely publicized findings of Stack Data Strategy further validates Mr. Baris’s assessment of the presidential race thus far.

Other GOP challengers and their supporters may beg to differ—and many people are skeptical of polls. The White House dismissed the significance of recent polling favoring President Trump over the incumbent, President Joe Biden.

But the Stack Data’s findings build on a growing body of evidence that bodes well for President Trump’s candidacy, Mr. Baris said.

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Even Democrat strategists, such as former New York State senator David Carlucci, say it’s undeniable: Current messaging about President Biden needs an overhaul.

“I believe it’s a real red flag and a warning signal to Democrats,” Mr. Carlucci told The Epoch Times on Nov. 16, when asked about the findings of Stack Data and other pollsters.

“At the same time, it’s a blessing to see these numbers a year out,”  he said, while there’s still time for Democrats to change course.

Joe Bedell, head of North American operations for Stack Data, wrote on the company’s website: “Our research is the largest exercise of its kind so far this cycle and we can confidently say that, as things currently stand, if Donald Trump is selected as the Republican candidate, he is likely to win.”

From Oct. 12–Nov. 3, Stack Data interviewed some 15,000 U.S. respondents about their political views. That’s a much larger sample size than many pollsters use. Researchers fed that information into a “tried-and-tested” statistical model, which incorporates census data.

Stack Data says its model paints a detailed picture of the U.S. electorate and incorporates information about voting behavior “to project vote-intention results at the state level.”

According to Stack Data’s analysis, President Trump appears poised to handily defeat President Biden in the Electoral College, although the former president might narrowly lose the popular vote.

“Our polling also shows that neither party would benefit from a change in candidate,” Mr. Bedell wrote.

Electoral Blowout?

Some Republicans and Democrats have been calling for alternatives to the parties’ frontrunners, President Trump and President Biden. Both candidates suffer from poor favorability ratings.

Yet the former president would beat the President Biden’s “possible replacements,” Vice President Kamala Harris or California Gov. Gavin Newsom, “by an even greater margin,” Mr. Bedell said.

On the Republican side, Stack Data forecasts that President Trump’s distant second-place challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, would lose the Electoral College to President Biden in a blowout.

If the model is correct, President Biden would win 359 electoral votes; Mr. DeSantis would gain only 179. Conversely, Stack Data predicts President Trump would top President Biden, 292–246.

Mr. Baris says the data he collected “has very clearly shown that to us for the entire cycle, too.”

In a theoretical contest between President Biden and Gov. DeSantis, the incumbent president is ahead in 10 of 13 polls released since mid-September, according to RealClear Politics (RCP).

In contrast, President Trump leads President Biden in six out of 10 recent polls, one on one, RCP says. However, neither candidate has a decisive edge; the results are within the margin of error. That makes the race a statistical tie.

Still, President Trump is faring far better this election cycle, compared to his 2020 matchup against then-candidate Joe Biden.

At this time three years ago, President Trump was losing by nearly five percentage points, RCP reported.

‘Extremely Tight’ Race

Still, President Trump’s projected lead over President Biden for 2024 is not a comfortable one. “The battleground states remain extremely tight,” Stack Data said.

The poll shows President Trump poised to regain four swing states that he won in 2016 but lost in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. “These states are vital for Trump’s reelection,” Stack Data said.

Among the 50 U.S. states, these four states had the closest margins in 2020; less than 1 percent of the vote made the difference in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. The margin was 1.2 percent in Pennsylvania, where President Biden grew up.

But Stack Data says its current projections show “significant swings” toward President Trump. In Georgia, he leads President Biden by 3.3 percent, and in Pennsylvania by 2.3 percent.

“This far out from the election, these are very small differences ... and it is far from impossible that the Democrats will be able to close the gap by Nov. 5” of next year, Stack Data said.

Staunch Support

Meanwhile, there is little chance that President Trump’s Republican contenders can catch him before the primary caucuses and elections begin in January, Mr. Baris said.

He is securing 59 percent of the Republican vote, followed by Mr. DeSantis with 15 percent, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley at 9 percent, and Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy with 5 percent, according to RCP.

A key difference between President Trump and all other Republican candidates is his ability to motivate voters who have little or no history of voting in the past, Mr. Baris said. The former president also appeals strongly to  “truly persuadable” and independent voters.

“These voters routinely indicate they do not have any interest in voting unless it’s for him,” Mr. Baris said.

Earlier this year, Mr. Baris released polling showing that 30 percent of President Trump’s supporters would make him a write-in candidate if his name did not appear on their ballots.

Unusual Unknowns Cloud Race

So far, attempts to block President Trump’s name from ballots in several states, based on criminal accusations he faces, have failed thus far.

His indictments on 91 criminal charges fueled his popularity with people who agree with his contention that the cases against him equate to “election interference.” President Biden has denied influencing prosecutors, although many involved are part of his administration.

President Trump is expected to go on trial in one or more cases before the 2024 election; a possible conviction could dramatically affect the presidential race.

There are also two other wild cards: President Biden faces an impeachment inquiry over his relatives receiving millions of dollars from foreigners while he was vice president. And an Independent candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., threatens to siphon votes away from both President Biden and President Trump.

President Trump, known for his brash brand of charisma, inspires voters to “come out of the woodwork” for him, Mr. Baris said. He thinks neither Gov. DeSantis nor Ms. Haley can inspire a similar level of voter turnout.

The Epoch Times sought comment from the campaign staffs of Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley, but received no reply prior to publication.

What Really Counts

Earlier this year, the polling picture had been much rosier for Mr. DeSantis. Between January and April, more than half of the RCP-tracked polls showed Mr. DeSantis ahead of President Biden. But his poll rankings began to drop shortly after he announced his candidacy in May; to date, they have not rebounded.

Mr. DeSantis, Ms. Haley, and other Republican candidates have continued their fight, but have failed to chip away at President Trump’s lead in the polls. He has skipped all three of the Republican presidential debates thus far, saying they’re pointless considering his dominating lead.

He is expected to be absent from the fourth GOP debate, set for Dec. 6 in Alabama.

Regardless of what the polls say now or even closer to the election, Mr. Carlucci, the Democrat strategist, points out that what voters say they intend may differ from what they actually do.

He also said patterns often don’t hold true. Traditionally, when a Democrat president is in office, Republicans can expect more success in elections.

But a predicted “red wave” of Republican victories in last year’s midterms didn’t materialize. And in the most recent elections earlier this month, Republicans suffered stinging losses, Mr. Carlucci pointed out.

Republicans “lost control of the legislature in Virginia, overwhelmingly lost their issue on abortion in Ohio, and returned a Democratic governor to Kentucky,” Mr. Carlucci said.

Republicans blamed low voter turnout as a factor.

Mr. Baris said these results show “Republicans have a turnout problem.”

And Mr. Carlucci says that’s one of many ingredients that can spell the difference between victory and defeat in elections.

“As we know, polls don’t vote, people do,” he said. “I'd always rather be on the side of winning the election, instead of winning the poll.”