Democrats see a rare chance to cut into the Republicans’ edge in a deep-red Tennessee district next week, turning a normally quiet election into a test of whether the party can overperform in Trump territory.
The district, which covers 14 counties in Middle Tennessee, including downtown Nashville and the wealthy Nashville suburbs in Williamson County, has long favored Republicans.
Kent Syler, a political science professor at Middle Tennessee State University, told The Epoch Times in an interview this week that the race is definitely “more competitive” than when he spoke about it with The Epoch Times over the summer.
Democrats ‘Fired Up’
Syler said Republicans’ posture in the final week shows they are concerned about more than just who wins.
“You can tell by the money going in that, minimally, the Republicans see it as potentially another underperformance, which they would like to try to avoid.”
He said Democrats are chasing both an upset and a usable story line.
“Democrats are fired up about the potential maybe to be able to steal a seat,” Syler said. “But they also understand that they don’t necessarily have to get the most votes to come out with a victory,” if they can show steady gains in their share of the vote compared with 2024. He called the most likely outcome “an increase in the Democratic vote, potentially a significant increase in the Democratic percentage, that will allow the Democratic Party to use that data to recruit candidates nationally for next year.”
Syler said a result around 55 percent to 45 percent would be a clear overperformance for Democrats. “Anything better is gravy,” he said. Bringing the race into single digits would make it one of the most competitive contests Tennessee Democrats have seen in recent years, he added.
National Democrats are leaning into an economic message and an aggressive organizing push.
The Democratic National Committee said in a news release that Behn remains “laser-focused” on lowering grocery and health care costs and opposing what Democrats describe as tax breaks for billionaires. The DNC said its distributed organizing team has contacted more than 70,000 voters in the district during an organizing blitz and pledged to “ramp up” the effort through Election Day.
DNC Organizing Director Lorenza Ramirez said in the release that “Aftyn Behn has the momentum because she’s directly speaking to voters about what matters most to them: lowering costs,” while accusing Van Epps of backing President Donald Trump’s “Big Ugly Bill,” which Democrats say would kick 210,000 Tennessee families off their health insurance plans and put nine rural hospitals at risk of closure.
State party leaders are using the race to argue that Democrats can compete across the South, not just in urban strongholds.
“Democrats are winning because we’re focused on the issues families are living with every single day, such as how we are making life better and more affordable for everyday families,” Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Rachel Campbell said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times. “Now we have the opportunity to send Aftyn Behn to Congress and continue that fight right here at home. Voters are exhausted by broken promises, political theater, and rubber stamping extremist agendas. They’re choosing candidates who are actually working to make life more affordable, and they see that Democrats are the ones delivering.
“This is our moment to show the country that Tennessee has something to say,” she added. “We’re organizing, we’re energized, and we’re just getting started. Under new leadership, we’re making it clear that Tennesseans deserve to be seen, heard, and invested in. ... We’re building a movement that will carry us through Election Day and beyond. Do not count out the South.”
The Tennessee Democratic Party and Behn’s campaign are planning what they describe as the largest single-day door knocking effort in state history on Saturday, Nov. 29, with a “Statewide Canvass Day of Action” that will send volunteers from all 95 county parties into Davidson, Montgomery, and Williamson counties for three rounds of canvass launches. Party officials say it is the first time in decades that all 95 county parties are “organized, active, and firing on all cylinders.”
Republicans Invest Heavily
Republicans and their allies say the fundamentals still favor their side and have moved to shore up the seat.MAGA Inc., a super PAC backing Trump, has spent about one million dollars to support Van Epps. House Majority PAC, which backs Democrats, has said it plans to spend about one million dollars on digital and television ads for Behn.
The Republican National Committee said in an emailed statement to The Epoch Times it has invested nearly half a million dollars in the race.
“The RNC has invested nearly half a million dollars to ensure Matt Van Epps keeps this Trump district red,” the committee said, outlining a program that includes full-time RNC field staff embedded with the campaign, door knocking, phone banking, and a large-scale mail effort aimed at Republicans, independents, and low-propensity voters. “The bottom line: Republicans are fully engaged on the ground and outworking Democrats in TN-07. With early voting underway, the RNC is making sure voters turn out and keep this seat red.”
RNC Chairman Joe Gruters said the committee is making “a targeted investment in Tennessee’s 7th District.”
“With staff on the ground, an aggressive GOTV operation, and nearly half a million dollars in this race, Republicans are fully engaged to keep this Trump district red and safeguard our majority,” he said.
Van Epps, who served as a helicopter pilot in the Army, won the Republican primary in October after receiving endorsements from Trump, Green, and other party leaders. He resigned as Tennessee’s commissioner of General Services to run for the open seat and has campaigned on opposition to abortion, support for the Second Amendment, backing Trump’s border policies, and support for Israel. He has also promoted what he calls a pro–small business agenda and support for “innovation in crypto and artificial intelligence.”
Syler said Van Epps’s strategy fits a familiar pattern.
“On the Republican side, it’s a typical Republican Trump-era race where you go as far right as you can, be as Trump-like as you can, win your primary, and then the general election doesn’t matter,” he said. “It’s been kind of the Republican formula in Tennessee.”
He said Behn has taken a different approach from many recent Democrats in the state.
“I think Aftyn Behn has run more as a populist than most Democratic candidates in Tennessee in recent years,” he said, adding that the result could offer clues about whether that strategy can work in similar districts.
Both parties agree on one point: the central role of President Trump.
“There’s only one national figure that is having an impact on the race, and that’s President Donald Trump,” Syler said. He argued that Trump’s presence in the race is driving both Republican and Democratic turnout. “Midterms and elections like this special are referendums on the president. And that’s what this one is.”
The ballot also includes four independent candidates: vessel captain Teresa “Terri” Christie, combat pilot Jon Thorp, small business owner Bobby Dodge, and pastor Robert James Sutherby. Syler said it is unclear how many independents will vote in a special election or which major-party candidate, if any, they will affect.
For Democrats, the question on Dec. 2 may be less about whether they can flip the seat than whether they can narrow the gap.
“To be more competitive than what we’ve had in the last seven or eight years, it would need to get it down to single digits somewhere,” Syler said. Even if Republicans hold the district, he said, a strong showing by Behn would give Democrats another data point as they decide where to compete in 2026.
“Stranger things have happened,” he said. “But I think they also know that an overperformance is still helpful.”
The Democratic National Committee and the Tennessee Republican Party did not respond to a request for comment on the race from The Epoch Times.
