To Avoid Afghan Civil War, Partition the Country

To Avoid Afghan Civil War, Partition the Country
President of Afghanistan Ashraf Ghani meets with U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington, on June 25, 2021. Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images
Anders Corr
Updated:

Commentary

The Biden administration is scandalously throwing in the towel on Afghanistan, announcing that after Aug. 31, U.S. airstrikes would no longer protect Afghan government forces from massed Taliban attacks. In response to this U.S. abdication of responsibility to an ally, Afghan troops are surrendering in the face of Taliban military advances on the ground, including in the country’s north. America’s abject retreat from Afghanistan is catastrophic for U.S. national security, because a win for the Taliban, is a win for China, Russia, and Iran, all of which will welcome the withdrawal of U.S. forces, and the collapse of the pro-U.S. Afghan government that follows.

The withdrawal has been gradual over the past decade, with the Obama and Trump administrations drawing down forces in the Central Asian crossroads to try and force the democratically-elected Afghan government to step up to the plate and defend its people. “This is going to be a test now of the will and leadership of the Afghan people, the Afghan security forces and the government of Afghanistan,” General Mark A. Milley said at a Pentagon news conference on July 21.

But Taliban, Pakistani, and Chinese corrupting influences have paralyzed the Afghan government and its military forces, who are often in collusion with the Taliban and opium producers, and refuse to fight for their democracy and the rule of law. This leads to tactical victory after tactical victory for the Taliban, which will ultimately lead to a strategic victory for China as it sees its primary global adversary, the United States and allies, retreat from its western border. America’s retreat will be a disaster for the Afghan people, and especially for the Persian (Dari) speakers of the Northwest, which is increasingly targeted by Taliban violence. Their cities are already under siege.

Anders Corr
Anders Corr
Author
Anders Corr has a bachelor's/master's in political science from Yale University (2001) and a doctorate in government from Harvard University (2008). He is a principal at Corr Analytics Inc. and publisher of the Journal of Political Risk, and has conducted extensive research in North America, Europe, and Asia. His latest books are “The Concentration of Power: Institutionalization, Hierarchy, and Hegemony” (2021) and “Great Powers, Grand Strategies: the New Game in the South China Sea" (2018).
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