These 3 Virginia Congressional Races Could Be ‘National Bellwether’: Analyst

Virginia Gov. Glen Youngkin (L) and Republican Congressional district candidate Yesli Vega at a campaign event in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 17, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

FAIRFAX COUNTY, Va.—Virginia has three competitive races in the 2022 House elections: the 2nd, 7th, and 10th Congressional Districts, and they’re all trending Republican in the final days before election night.

A week ago, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the 7th Congressional District from “lean democrat” to “toss-up,” and the 10th Congressional District from “solid Democrat” to “likely Democrat.” The 2nd Congressional District remains a “toss-up,” according to the report. And last week, Fox News moved the 2nd Congressional District from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.”

All three congressional districts changed because of the Virginia Supreme Court’s redistricting decision in December 2021. All three Republican challengers are running for Congress for the first time, and all three Democrat incumbents are two-term congresswomen who belonged to the “Class of 2018,” part of the blue wave in the last midterm elections.

“The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether,” veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times.

“If [Elaine] Luria [incumbent in the 2nd Congressional District] wins, it'll be a better night for Democrats than the conventional wisdom foresees.

“If [Abigail] Spanberger [incumbent in the 7th Congressional District] loses a close race to Vega, we could see a GOP victory in line with historic midterm trends of a 20-seat pickup for the party not holding the presidency.

“If [Jennifer] Wexton [incumbent in the 10th Congressional District] loses, it’s a red wave.”

Due to Virginia’s off-year state legislative elections, midterm ballots are short. Hence the vote counts are expected to be quicker than in other states.

Sean Brown, vice president of Axiom Strategies, which advises Republican challenger Yesli Vega’s campaign in the 7th Congressional District, told The Epoch Times that Vega is “going to kick off a big win for Republicans across the country.”

“I do think we’re going to be that first one that goes, and then it will be a night for Republicans,” Brown said.

Former U.S. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (3rd L), Republican congressional candidate Yesli Vega (4th L), and Virginia Delegate Tara Durant pose with deputies at the Stafford County Sheriff's Office at a campaign event for Vega in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 22, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Vega, a Prince William County supervisor and former police officer, is challenging two-term incumbent Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) in Virginia’s most competitive congressional race.

Brown called the 7th Congressional District race “a bellwether for how Republicans do around the country.” According to him, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District is Democrat-leaning on paper in a normal year with a normal candidate. The district, which mainly spans Prince William, Stafford, and Spotsylvania counties, has become slightly more Democrat-leaning after redistricting in 2021.

“But you’ve got a unique candidate with a unique story running in a year against a candidate from a very unpopular party with an unpopular president and unpopular economy around their neck,” Brown said. “And I think that’s the story we see play out across the country.”

Republicans in Virginia expect Jen Kiggans, a Virginia state senator and Navy veteran, to unseat Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.) in the 2nd Congressional District, which includes Virginia Beach and nearby localities. A late October poll by the Wason Center of Christopher Newport University (CNU) shows Luria and Kiggans tied at 45 percentage points each, with 8 percent of voters still undecided.

In the 10th Congressional District, which covers Loudoun County and part of Prince William County, Republican candidate Hung Cao, a Navy veteran, takes on Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.).

“If Hung Cao wins in the 10th, then it’s going to be a red wave across the country. That [district] is probably the tightest one with the capability of flipping,” Ron Wright, a co-founder of the Suburban Virginia Republican Coalition, told The Epoch Times.

Wright described the current political cycle as “generational.”

“This is a whole new Republican generation coming through, whether it’s Glenn Youngkin, Ron DeSantis, Tom Cotton, Yesli [Vega], and Hung Cao,” he said.

“It’s new lifeblood for the [Republican] Party. And that’s where our cycles are. Once you get a generation that stays in and wins, the next generations come again. So you’re seeing all these young conservative Republicans running for office now.”

Wright noted that he expects to see many interesting Republican candidates in the race for the 2024 presidential election.

Which Issues Will Win?

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, a Republican, said three things matter a lot in elections: the definition of the district, the dominating issues that will sway independents, and the quality of the candidate. He had helped with the 7th and 10th Congressional District campaigns and saw Republican advantages on each of the above factors.

Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore at a campaign event for Republican congressional candidate Yesli Vega in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 17, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Gilmore said Virginia’s election results, like in the rest of the nation, would confirm whether the public cared more about Republican campaign issues, such as inflation, border, and crimes, or Democrat issues, such as abortion and former President Donald Trump.

The CNU poll in the 2nd Congressional District shows that independents and Republicans consider inflation and the economy as top issues. And the top issue for Democrats in the district is abortion.

Gilmore noted that the education issue also became prominent in the Virginia midterms.

“The underlying issue is whether there’s going to be a quality education or whether it’s going to be a pileup indoctrination of culture, which I believe the public is rejecting, and they rejected it in the Youngkin race,” he told The Epoch Times. “They don’t want to see the schools become indoctrination centers for students.”

On Nov. 1, the three incumbents held a joint press conference criticizing House Republicans’ “commitment to America” midterms agenda that included a goal to “save and strengthen Social Security and Medicare.” The three congresswomen interpreted the agenda as cutting these federal programs.

A day earlier, the Democratic Party of Virginia issued a statement criticizing Vega’s position against abortion.

7th Congressional District Race

Spanberger has run her reelection campaign as a moderate candidate who isn’t afraid of challenging authorities. In September, she called for new Democrat leadership after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) didn’t support her legislation to ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks. She has also been running TV ads of endorsements from a local Republican police chief and former Virginia Republican congressman.

For Gilmore, the 7th Congressional District race is the most important because “Abigail Spanberger is a real problem.”

“She’s a liberal Democrat. She votes that way, but she pretends to be something different,” he said.

Silvia Ramirez (L), a member of CASA in Action, the political arm of the immigration rights nonprofit, with Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) in Woodbridge, Va., on Oct. 22, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

Holsworth, the analyst, disagreed. He said Spanberger was “the best Democratic candidate in the state.”

“She has voted mostly with Democrats, but at the same time has certainly worked in a bipartisan way [in Congress],” he said, noting that Spanberger had proven to be “an independent voice.”

“In terms of bipartisan credentials, Spanberger probably has more than Vega right now. But Vega does have an opportunity for some crossover vote.”

Holsworth was referring to Hispanic voters, who previously tended to vote Democrat but now tend to vote Republican.

Representatives for Spanberger’s campaign didn’t respond to a request by The Epoch Times for comment by press time.

Hispanic Votes

Hispanic votes make up 17 percent of total voters in the 7th Congressional District.

The election result there would demonstrate how much of the Latino vote has shifted to Republicans, Wright said, noting that some of the heavy Latino precincts in Prince William County would be interesting to follow. The county has about 35 percent of the total voters in the district.

He thought the Hispanic support of Republicans was a continued trend that might have been disrupted by COVID-19 but is now back.

“More middle-class Latino voters are realizing just how damaging democratic policies are. So it’s a shift; they start to realize the tax burden and the economic burdens. And they’re starting to shift their priorities,” Wright said.

He noted that the Hispanic voting results would indicate whether economic and education issues or racial justice and immigration reform are more important to Latino voters.

Trump Endorsement

Former President Donald Trump recently endorsed Vega. Spanberger’s campaign used the endorsement to garner more voter support.

Wright said focusing on Trump wouldn’t work because it didn’t work in the gubernatorial race last year. Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, a Democrat and Youngkin’s opponent, had campaigned on tying Youngkin to Trump.

Virginia Gov. Glen Youngkin (L) at a campaign event for Republican congressional district candidate Yesli Vega in Fredericksburg, Va., on Oct. 17, 2022. (Terri Wu/The Epoch Times)

The Youngkin Factor

Brown said Vega’s campaign built on the movement that started last year. Youngkin won the governorship by identifying the voter sentiment and running on kitchen table issues. Axiom Strategies advised Youngkin’s campaign in 2021, and Vega co-led a Hispanic coalition and helped Youngkin win Hispanic votes in the state.

“I think when you have one of Spanberger’s top surrogates, [Del. Elizabeth] Guzman, talking about legislation that would jail parents for not affirming woke [gender] ideology of a 9-year-old, that’s the exact kind of stuff that people rejected last year with what was going on in schools,” Brown said.

In mid-October, Guzman, a Democratic state delegate, backed down from introducing legislation to expand the definition of child abuse to include inflicting “physical or mental injury” on children because of their gender identity or sexual orientation. When she first announced the measure, she said parents who don’t affirm their children’s choice of gender identity could incur Child Protective Services charges.

Holsworth agrees that Vega is trying to harness the momentum that Youngkin had last year.

But he questioned whether the parental rights issue, which in his view had a lot to do with “people frustrated with a year and a half of COVID and their kids not in school,” would sway independents.

“It just seems to me that in this election, the issues that are driving voters who are going to make the difference are really other matters,“ Holsworth said. ”It’s what they think about inflation, what they think about Biden, what they think about the Dobbs decision, what do you think about abortion.”

Youngkin, for his part, has been full-throated in his support for Republican nominees in his state, having attended many rallies for Vega, Kiggans, Cao, and other Republican candidates. His Empowering Virginia Parents PAC has spent more than $400,000 for the 2nd, 7th, and 10th Congressional District races, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonprofit organization connecting Virginians with nonpartisan political information.

When stumping for candidates in and outside Virginia, Youngkin repeatedly said the “red wave” movement that propelled him to victory in last year’s gubernatorial race is “happening again,” and he credited Virginia as the “headwaters” of the movement.

Representatives for Wexton’s and Luria’s campaigns didn’t respond to requests by The Epoch Times for comment by press time.