As Russia celebrates the imminent incorporation of four Ukrainian regions into its territory, Kyiv’s western supporters have vowed to impose new sanctions on Moscow in response to referendums that they say are illegitimate.
In five days of polling that ended on Sept. 27, the vast majority of voters in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson opted to leave Ukraine and join the Russian Federation, according to Russian and pro-Russian sources.
On Sept. 29, the Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin would sign a decree the following day officially incorporating the four regions into Russia, after which he plans to deliver a seminal address.
Moscow’s Red Square has reportedly been decked out for the occasion with large billboards proclaiming, “Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson–Russia!”
Most western capitals say the move amounts to the de facto “annexation” of the four regions by Russia.
According to European Union officials, a fresh round of sanctions targeting various aspects of the Russian economy and certain Russian officials will likely be agreed upon in the run-up to an upcoming EU summit.
The summit is expected to focus on the latest developments in Ukraine and Russia, ostensible threats by Moscow to use nuclear weapons, and the recent disruption of pipelines used to supply Northern Europe with Russian gas.
U.S. officials have likewise vowed to redouble sanctions on Moscow in response to what they describe as “sham” referendums.
“We will continue to work with allies and partners to bring even more pressure on Russia and the individuals and entities that are helping support its attempted land grab,” State Department spokesman Ned Price told reporters on Sept. 28.
Escalating Rhetoric
Western media outlets have continued to report feverishly on purported threats by Russia to use nuclear weapons in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, now in its eighth month.In a Sept. 28 article in a prominent U.S. magazine, Russian Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov wrote: “We are not threatening anyone. But we confirm that ... Russia is ready to defend its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and our people with all weapon systems we have.”
Once Russia formally incorporates the four regions into its territory, it will view attacks on those regions—by Ukrainian forces or others—as attacks on sovereign Russian territory, he said.
U.S. politicians would be mistaken “if they think that our readiness to defend our territory does not apply to Crimea or to territories that may become part of Russia on the basis of a free expression of popular will,” according to Antonov.
In 2014, the Black Sea region of Crimea voted overwhelmingly to join Russia in a similar referendum. The results of that poll remain unrecognized by all but a handful of countries.
Russian forces and their local allies currently hold about 60 percent of Donetsk, the scene of fierce fighting, and almost all of Luhansk. Together, the two territories make up the Russian-speaking Donbas region.
Russian forces also currently control broad swaths of the southern Zaporizhzhia region and almost all of neighboring Kherson.
On Sept. 21, Putin announced the call-up of 300,000 experienced army reservists for military service in Ukraine and elsewhere.
‘Attack on Strategic Infrastructure’
Mystery continues to swirl around recent disruptions of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines after the Swedish Coast Guard discovered a fourth gas leak on the morning of Sept. 29.Brussels has been quick to label the leaks, which were reportedly preceded by underwater explosions, as intentional sabotage.
“The attack on strategic infrastructure means that the strategic infrastructure in the entire EU has to be protected,” one EU official said following news of the fourth leak. “This changes fundamentally the nature of the [Russia–Ukraine] conflict as we have seen it so far.”
On Sept. 26, Danish authorities reported a gas leak emanating from the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Shortly afterward, Swedish authorities reported two similar leaks along Nord Stream 1.
Both pipelines run under the Baltic Sea, linking gas fields in Russia to Germany and other European energy markets.
Late last month, Russia cut gas flows through Nord Stream 1, citing “technical problems” caused by Western-led sanctions. Construction of Nord Stream 2 has yet to be completed.
On Sept. 29, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov likewise declined to rule out the possibility that the leaks were the result of sabotage.
“It is very difficult to imagine that such an act of terrorism could happen without the involvement of a state of some kind,” Peskov told reporters.
According to a senior U.S. military official, the jury is “still out” as to the party or parties responsible for the damage.
“Many of our partners ... believe it is sabotage,” the Pentagon official was quoted as saying.
Asked about possible U.S. culpability, the official said: “We were absolutely not involved.”
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