Hundreds of political prisoners in Venezuela have been released since the U.S. military captured the country’s socialist strongman, Nicolás Maduro. Human rights group Foro Penal claims that 266 of the prisoners were released, and the government of Venezuela claims to have released 808.
The release was a major win for the United States, which demanded their freedom before and after Maduro’s capture.
As a result, U.S. sanctions on Venezuela will likely be rolled back. Bondholders will be repaid, investors will feel that further investments are secure, employment will increase, and wages will rise. For years, U.S. oil companies have asked for these changes. The capture of Maduro finally did the trick.
The government of Venezuela has become mostly cooperative with the United States. The caretaker president, Delcy Rodríguez, has taken action against Maduro loyalists. She dismissed Alex Saab, a Colombian businessman whom the United States sanctioned for laundering money for the Maduro regime. She also worked with the United States to force the return of a tanker carrying Saab’s oil to Venezuela.
“Enough already of Washington’s orders over politicians in Venezuela,” she said.
The legal reforms to oil exploitation are a positive move, but more should be done on the issues of corruption, JV partner rights, and new oil contract regulation. That Rodríguez is not doing more to get ahead of these issues is not a good sign for the democratization of the country.
Rodríguez used to be Maduro’s vice president. She apparently wants to continue his authoritarian model of governance and avoid new elections. Some analysts in Venezuela compare her to China’s Deng Xiaoping and have coined a new nickname for her: “Delcyping.”
Maduro’s old interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, has retained control of the police, intelligence, and military apparatus, including the “colectivos,” a feared paramilitary group that roams the streets. As many as one thousand political prisoners remain behind Venezuelan bars. Others are gagged by court order.
For democracy to return to Venezuela, the government should cut all ties with China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba. This is the demand that the United States made following the capture of Maduro. All countries, including the United States, should strive to decouple from dictatorships that are adversarial to the United States and other democracies.
Democracy in Venezuela will require new elections. María Corina Machado was barred from running in the 2024 presidential election, and her lesser-known replacement got 70 percent of the vote. Maduro only retained his hold on power through force. His methods included intimidation of the opposition, their unlawful detention, and the suppression of free speech.
To get an election will require getting past the unpopular Rodríguez and Cabello. One commentator has suggested that mid-level military officers in Venezuela could do the job. If so, elections should be scheduled immediately and held within two months.
As should be clear from the above, the Trump administration’s capture of Maduro was a winning strategy. Although democratization in Venezuela admittedly requires more work, the capture of an adversarial dictator was far better than past U.S. strategies of appeasement. This is quite clear when considering new business opportunities in the country and the freeing of political prisoners. Trading U.S. prisoners for those held by adversary countries, and other such giveaways, just incentivizes further wrongs. There should be no more rewards for dictators. The Trump administration’s approach to Maduro is far preferable.
