Red Flags and Canola Fields: How Beijing Leverages Regional Economic Dependence to Divide Canada

Canola is loaded on to a truck on a farm outside of Moose Jaw, Sask., on April 7, 2025. The Canadian Press/Chris Young

Commentary

A pattern is emerging in Canada that demands critical scrutiny. It is gaining momentum just as the nation faces increasing pressure between its closest strategic ally and its most systemically hostile trade partner.

Renewed calls to deepen engagement with the People’s Republic of China, framed as pragmatic or cloaked in economic expediency, have re-entered the national discourse. From newspaper commentaries downplaying the threat posed by Beijing, to public statements by premiers such as Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe urging Ottawa to re-engage with the Chinese regime amid tensions between the United States and Canada, the messaging is not new. It is, however, increasingly reckless.

This is not diplomacy. It is a deliberate and gradual slide into strategic dependence, engineered not in Ottawa, but in Beijing.

Strategic Tradecraft, Not Merely Trade

The Chinese Communist Party does not view trade relationships as neutral or apolitical. Rather, it understands them as instruments of statecraft—mechanisms for acquiring influence, applying pressure, and enforcing compliance. What is often mistaken in the West as economic cooperation is, from Beijing’s perspective, part of a broader and well-coordinated hybrid warfare campaign. This strategy seeks to weaponize economic interdependence, create pressure points at the provincial and sectoral levels, and exploit internal divisions within democratic states.

Canada is not exempt. In fact, it exemplifies this tactic.

Saskatchewan is a critical exporter of canola, and China remains one of its most significant buyers. This dependency did not develop by chance. It is the outcome of an intentional long-term effort by Beijing to foster reliance in strategically important jurisdictions. Once established, this reliance becomes leverage. When Canada detained Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018, Beijing retaliated in 2019 by banning Canadian canola under fabricated justifications. This was not a legitimate trade dispute. It was a coercive act designed to send a message to Ottawa and to signal the consequences of defying Beijing’s interests.

Premier Moe’s push for renewed trade ties with China reflects a common political instinct to shield local economies at any cost. However, the actual cost is not provincial. It is national. It is structural. And it is corrosive. When foreign authoritarian regimes can set the terms of market access, Canada is no longer engaged in free trade. It is engaging in managed vulnerability.

Subnational Pressure and National Division

The Chinese Communist Party has mastered the practice of identifying and exploiting economic and political fault lines within Western nations, particularly federations. In Canada, those divisions manifest most clearly through regional economic structures. One province may depend heavily on commodity exports, another on foreign direct investment, and another on international education or tourism. Beijing tailors its influence campaigns accordingly. It creates leverages to punish national resistance while selectively rewarding regional cooperation, thereby creating an uneven perception of risk and reward.

This approach, coordinated by the Chinese regime’s United Front Work Department and supported by various state-affiliated intermediaries, has been deployed across multiple democratic nations. In Canada, Beijing builds direct relationships with subnational actors—provincial premiers, mayors, business groups, and institutional leaders—who are then publicly positioned as advocates of stronger China relations. These individuals or entities are rewarded with business deals, diplomatic access, or investment prospects. Meanwhile, Ottawa is cast as the source of obstacles and friction, which erodes unity when it comes to the nation’s foreign policy positioning.

The Chinese regime’s goal is not only influence. It is division, redirection, and the erosion of national coherence.

Alberta’s Strategic Caution

While Saskatchewan’s leadership has moved to re-engage with Beijing, Alberta has charted a more cautious course. Premier Danielle Smith’s administration has demonstrated restraint where some have openly welcomed Chinese engagement. This difference is not solely the result of economic diversification—though Alberta’s broader trade relationship with the United States does afford greater flexibility. It reflects strategic awareness.

In May, when asked by The Epoch Times about China’s tactics, Premier Smith said that China understands “the division in our country,” and uses that to “create maximum pressure.”

The Smith government has signalled a more informed understanding of the security risks associated with foreign interference, particularly from authoritarian actors. This posture reflects not only prudence, but resilience. Alberta appears to recognize that short-term trade gains may undermine long-term autonomy. Unlike their counterparts, not all provincial leaders are prepared to exchange sovereignty for short-lived access to a volatile market.

Targeting the Agricultural Sector

Canada’s agricultural sector is uniquely susceptible to foreign interference. Marginal profitability, high export dependency, and global competition make it an ideal target for coercive statecraft. The Chinese Communist Party does not simply buy commodities. It acquires influence through targeted relationships and indirect economic incentives.

Beijing engages with Canadian agri-business associations, funds bilateral trade forums, and partners with commercial entities that are functionally aligned with state objectives. These engagements often occur through proxies or front organizations, blurring the line between private commerce and state-directed activity.

This is not conjecture. It is substantiated through Canadian Security Intelligence Service assessments, public testimony before parliamentary committees, and open-source documentation. Beijing applies its market as both a reward and a punishment. Jurisdictions that comply are granted access. Those that resist face exclusion.

Coordinated Influence Behind Closed Doors

The situation currently unfolding across Canada is not the result of natural market dynamics. It is the product of sustained and deliberate influence operations. Behind the scenes, a range of actors—including Chinese trade envoys, industry lobbyists, and organizations linked to the United Front Work Department—are exerting pressure on provincial decision-makers to deepen ties with the Chinese regime.

These efforts are often presented as business development, cultural diplomacy, or educational cooperation. However, the cumulative effect is unmistakable. National cohesion is gradually undermined, and policy independence eroded.

The most insidious aspect is that politicians and advisers may not fully recognize the scope of the influence to which they are subject. The tactics are subtle. They present as opportunity, not threat. Yet they are designed to reshape political priorities, reframe narratives, and neutralize opposition to Beijing’s strategic objectives.

The Stakes: National Security

The assumption that increased trade with China will alleviate Canada’s economic pressures is both strategically naïve and demonstrably false. Every time a Canadian leader advocates for deeper engagement without confronting the documented history of coercion and interference, Beijing registers success. It is not interested in partnerships—it seeks leverage, dependency, and compliance.

When provinces diverge from national security interests in favour of short-term economic appeasement, Canada’s structural integrity is weakened. This is not an unintended consequence. It is the intended outcome of Beijing’s hybrid campaign.

Ottawa must establish clear national parameters for engagement, grounded in security and resilience. Provincial leaders must also understand that their decisions carry implications beyond their immediate jurisdictions. This is no longer a conversation about canola or soybeans. It is about the sovereignty, unity, and strategic endurance of Canada as a democratic state.