Thinking About China
Opinion

Provincial Budgets Cast Doubt on Beijing’s Economic Projections for 2026

Provincial and local governments across China are reducing growth expectations and slashing budgets, making it unlikely reality will meet Beijing’s 2026 target.
Provincial Budgets Cast Doubt on Beijing’s Economic Projections for 2026
People walk past a screen showing figures of the gross domestic product (GDP) on a street in Shanghai, China, on Jan. 19, 2026. Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images
Milton Ezrati
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Commentary

Provincial and local government announcements across China stand in direct contradiction to the economic picture painted by Beijing.

Milton Ezrati
Milton Ezrati
Author
Milton Ezrati is a contributing editor at The National Interest, an affiliate of the Center for the Study of Human Capital at the University at Buffalo (SUNY), and chief economist for Vested, a New York-based communications firm. Before joining Vested, he served as chief market strategist and economist for Lord, Abbett & Co. He also writes frequently for City Journal and blogs regularly for Forbes. His latest book is “Thirty Tomorrows: The Next Three Decades of Globalization, Demographics, and How We Will Live.”