New Zealand: A Small Country but a Major Player Against China’s Coercion in South Pacific

The New Zealand flag flies in front of The Beehive, the executive building within New Zealand's Parliament Buildings complex in Wellington, New Zealand, on May 14, 2020. Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

Commentary

New Zealand may be a small country by any measure—just more than 5 million people and roughly 100,000 square miles of land—but its unique identities have made it one of China’s key targets in what Beijing calls “periphery diplomacy,” the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) diplomatic strategy of infiltrating and partnering with neighboring countries to strengthen its geopolitical standing.

An Advanced Western Economy

China has used New Zealand—an advanced Western economy—as a convenient gateway into the Western economic system. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce touts four “firsts” with New Zealand: It is the first country to finish World Trade Organization bilateral negotiations with China, the first to recognize China as a full market economy, the first to enter bilateral free trade agreement negotiations with China, and the first to sign and implement a free trade agreement.

However, Beijing’s ambitions in New Zealand go well beyond trade and economic ties.

A well-known 2020 research report by Anne-Marie Brady, a China expert and professor at the University of Canterbury, and her colleagues, titled “Holding a Pen in One Hand, Gripping a Gun in the Other,” explains why New Zealand is such an attractive target for the CCP:

• It has high-tech companies and world-class scientists.
• It is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance and a NATO partner.
• It is close to Antarctica and runs advanced polar research programs.

All this is extremely valuable to China as it tries to dominate polar resources and expand its BeiDou satellite system. New Zealand’s relatively lax defenses have made it an easy backdoor for the CCP to access Western high-end technology for its military modernization.

However, as the CCP becomes “more assertive,” Wellington realizes that “Chinese state-sponsored actors have exploited cyber vulnerabilities in New Zealand in ways that undermine” its security, according to a national security report.

A Key Player in the Western Military and Political System

New Zealand is not just any ordinary Western country—it sits at the core of several important alliances.

It is a member of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network (along with the United States, the UK, Canada, and Australia), a tightly knit group based on Anglo-Saxon values that even major European allies such as Germany and France aren’t fully part of.

(L–R) Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers, British former Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, and New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis stand for a group photo following a meeting of the Five Eyes finance ministers at the Treasury Department in Washington on April 18, 2024. Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

New Zealand also has close military ties with the United States, especially with the U.S. Space Force. It hosts a U.S.-funded space surveillance center in Auckland that tracks rocket launches and debris. Its geographic location in the Southern Hemisphere gives it natural advantages for certain satellite launches and space operations.

Furthermore, New Zealand is moving closer to joining AUKUS Pillar Two (the advanced technology-sharing component covering artificial intelligence, quantum, hypersonics, cyber, and underwater systems). It has also become one of NATO’s four Asia-Pacific partners, alongside Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and has signed an updated partnership program—the Individually Tailored Partnership Program—with NATO, running through 2027.

On top of that, New Zealand remains part of the Five Power Defense Arrangements with the UK, Australia, Malaysia, and Singapore.

A Leading Power in the South Pacific

New Zealand (together with Australia) sees itself as a natural leader in the South Pacific region, which includes 14 small island nations. This area sits at a critical strategic location—part of the second and third island chains in the U.S. defense architecture against potential adversaries.

According to a research report by Jung-Ming Chang, as assistant research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, the second island chain is made up of Japan, the Ogasawara Islands, the Mariana Islands, Guam, Palau, and Indonesia; Alaska, the Aleutian Islands, Midway Atoll, Hawaii, the Line Islands (partly controlled by Kiribati), and New Zealand form the third island chain that constitutes the last line of defense that deters adversarial forces from reaching the U.S. continent.

Because of geography, culture, and historical ties, New Zealand has been actively working with Australia to counter China’s growing influence through diplomacy, aid, and security cooperation. In 2022, New Zealand joined the U.S.-led Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative that includes Australia, Japan, and the UK.

New Zealand Is Shifting Its China Policy

For a long time, New Zealand took a very liberal and accommodating approach toward China. But that has changed significantly in recent years because of Beijing’s aggressive “wolf warrior” diplomacy, foreign interference, and cyberactivities.

In 2023, Wellington’s first-ever National Security Strategy and its Security Intelligence Service both publicly identified the Chinese regime as a major source of security challenges that “undermine" New Zealand’s security and as the “most active” foreign interferer in the country.

In April 2025, the government announced a major defense upgrade plan worth NZ$12 billion (about US$7.05 billion) over four years, with defense spending set to nearly double, rising to more than 2 percent of gross domestic product from about 1 percent. New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon called it “the floor, not the ceiling.”

New Zealand has also pushed back hard against Chinese moves in its backyard. In 2025, after the Cook Islands signed secret deals with China without consulting Wellington, New Zealand temporarily cut aid and later signed a new Defense and Security Declaration with the Cook Islands, clearly designating New Zealand as its primary security partner—effectively neutralizing Beijing’s gains.

Recent incidents indicate growing friction.

For example, in April, Beijing accused a P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft operated by the New Zealand Defense Force of conducting close-range “reconnaissance and harassment” activities in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.

In response, the New Zealand Defense Force said the aircraft was carrying out a long-standing international mission under U.N. Security Council resolutions to monitor North Korea’s sanctions evasion and was undertaking activities “not directed at China but rather aimed at monitoring evasions of United Nations sanctions on North Korea, which do occur in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.” It noted that the operation was conducted “professionally and in accordance with international law and civil aviation procedures.”

Concluding Thoughts

China remains New Zealand’s largest trading partner and a major source of tourists and exports. However, Beijing’s global ambitions and heavy-handed conduct in the Pacific are steadily pushing Wellington closer to Washington and its traditional allies.

Although New Zealand will try to manage its economic dependence on China, its policy will increasingly focus on strategic balancing against Beijing, strengthening alliances, and diversifying its economy to reduce reliance on the Chinese market.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.