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Israel’s June Strikes Exposed the Fragility—and Possible Collapse—of the Iranian Regime

Israel’s June Strikes Exposed the Fragility—and Possible Collapse—of the Iranian Regime
People watch from a bridge as flames from an Israeli attack rise from Sharan Oil depot, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, on June 15, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency via Reuters
Fariba Parsa
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Commentary
Between June 13 and 16, 2025, Israel launched a coordinated series of air, missile, and cyberattacks deep into Iranian territory. Known as Operation Rising Lion, these precision strikes were not just a military counteroffensive; they constituted a strategic dismantling of the Islamic Republic’s foundational structures. For the first time since 1979, the regime appears not only vulnerable but structurally compromised.

A Regime Built on Control, Now Exposed

The Islamic Republic of Iran functions through a tightly woven theocratic-military architecture. Its survival hinges on the cohesion of five core systems: the Supreme Leader’s office, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the intelligence-security apparatus, oil revenue and sanctions-evasion networks, and ideological control through clerical and media dominance. In one coordinated campaign, each of these pillars was hit with precision.

The Supreme Leader’s Circle Decimated

Ali Khamenei’s Office of the Supreme Leader (Beyt-e Rahbari) has long operated as the nucleus of power in Iran. During the Israeli strikes, Khamenei reportedly retreated to a secure location and ceased public appearances. Key advisors and top military officials were killed in the initial waves, including:
  • Ali Shamkhani (former Supreme National Security Council head)
  • Major General Mohammad Bagheri (Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces)
  • Major General Hossein Salami (Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC)
  • Major General Gholam Ali Rashid (Commander of the Khatam-al Anbiya Central HQ)
  • Brigadier Generals Gholamreza Mehrabi, Mehdi Rabbani, Mohammad Kazemi, and Mohammad Hassan Mohakek (key figures in intelligence and operations)
  • Fereydoon Abbasi-Davani (former nuclear chief)
These losses constitute a decapitation strike on the regime’s senior leadership and create an unprecedented power vacuum at the top.

The IRGC: Hollowed From Within

The IRGC serves not only as Iran’s elite military force but also as its economic enforcer, foreign policy executor, and internal security bulwark. During Operation Rising Lion, Israeli strikes:
  • Targeted IRGC aerospace command facilities in Isfahan
  • Destroyed drone storage and production near Kermanshah
  • Hit cyber warfare and logistics command nodes in Tehran and Shiraz
More than 200 IRGC personnel, including senior aerospace officers, were reportedly killed. Losses in manpower and infrastructure have deeply disrupted IRGC operational capacity both domestically and across the region. These attacks cripple the regime’s asymmetric warfare and economic influence.

Intelligence Paralysis

Iran’s security-state model relies heavily on its intelligence infrastructure, including the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), IRGC Intelligence, and the Basij. On June 14, a precision strike leveled the IRGC’s secret intelligence hub in Tehran. Cyber operations simultaneously disabled secure communication between the MOIS and provincial authorities.
Fariba Parsa
Fariba Parsa
Author
Dr. Fariba Parsa is the founder and president of Women's E-Learning in Leadership (WELL), a nonprofit organization dedicated to empowering women in Iran and Afghanistan through online leadership education and training. Dr. Parsa holds a doctorate in social science, specializing in Iranian politics with a focus on political Islam, democracy, and human rights. She is the author of “Fighting for Change in Iran: The Women, Life, Freedom Philosophy against Political Islam.”