Hastening Communist China’s End

A security guard (R) and a police officer (L) secure the area at the entrance to Zhongnanhai, the leadership compound of the Chinese Communist Party, in Beijing on May 18, 2020. (Nicolas Asfouri/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentary

There have been dramatic events inside and outside China in recent years, not the least of which include the extremes of droughts and floods, devastating hurricanes, and the havoc wrought on the Chinese people and economy by the COVID-19 pandemic. China watchers have been speculating on whether China is rising, cresting, or declining.

The socio-political-economic trends in a country of 1.4 billion souls are difficult to gauge. A key indicator is determining whether the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is living up to its promises to the people. Part of the existing social contract between the CCP regime and the Chinese people is that the regime would deliver economic opportunity and an improved standard of living. The people concede their political rights and freedoms to the CCP in return for the promise of never-ending economic prosperity. If either side violates its end of the bargain, then the result is social unrest and potential chaos.

As long as the regime can appear to deliver relative prosperity to the average Chinese, the Chinese people can tolerate the regime’s authoritarian measures. That contract was on the verge of going up in smoke during the pandemic as communist leader Xi Jinping’s unscientific attempt to stop the spread of the virus through his zero-COVID policy involved the forced incarceration of hundreds of millions of Chinese in their homes and in field hospitals, resulting in major riots and unrest in the fall of 2022. The CCP cannot withstand prolonged widespread dissent because that exposes the lie that is its social contract, and Mr. Xi was forced to completely rescind his signature zero-COVID policy.

Protesters hold up a white piece of paper against censorship as they march during a protest against the Chinese Communist Party’s strict zero-COVID measures in Beijing on Nov. 27, 2022. (Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)

Despite the narrative that “all is well, trust the Party,” which has been manufactured and promoted by the CCP and state-run Chinese media, there are continuing signs of serious problems that beset the country. These include three of the biblical “four horsemen”: food insecurity (the ghosts of famine always loom large, and China is the biggest importer of foodstuffs in the world), pestilence (SARS-CoV-2 certainly qualifies, but there have been other deadly viruses that originated in China over the years), and war (the People Liberation Army’s ongoing contesting of international transit rights in the Taiwan Strait, as well as the continuing rumblings along the disputed India-China Line of Actual Control).

Whenever tyrants have problems at home, “overseas adventures” are often used to distract disgruntled domestic audiences. Mr. Xi is no slouch in that regard, as he has used his communist diplomatic corps and state-run media to create narratives that appeal to Chinese nationalism (a belief shared by many Chinese that China is the center of the world and its rightful leader). His ire is aimed at the CCP’s main roadblock to their ambitions: the United States of America and its allies.

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In Mr. Xi’s megalomaniacal pursuit of power, headlines frequently imply or state directly that the United States must hand over the reins of the free enterprise-based international world order to the “authoritarian capitalism” and merciless mercantilism practiced by Beijing to be replaced by a CCP-led “new world order” (see here, here and here, as well as innumerable articles in state-run Chinese media). As noted by the Jamestown Foundation, Mr. Xi promulgated a little-known law on foreign affairs that went into effect on July 1, titled “The Law on Foreign Relations of the People’s Republic of China.” The law “aims to strengthen China’s global position and challenge the Western-led world order.”

A Taiwanese Air Force Mirage 2000 fighter jet lands at an air force base in Hsinchu, northern Taiwan, on April 9, 2023. (Jameson Wu/AFP via Getty Images)

Mr. Xi claimed in 2021 that China is the “equal” of the United States, as The Wall Street Journal reported. At the top of his list of “attention-getters” is Taiwan. Mr. Xi and his lapdogs demand that the United States (and the world) accommodate China in order to prevent a war over Taiwan (see here, here, here, here, here, and here). A forced unification of Taiwan is a topic that energizes many Chinese, both pro and con. Any attention on Taiwan diverts focus from the Chinese economic and social problems that abound.

But even the ratcheting up of the Chinese military and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan cannot hide the severe problems exacerbated by long-term CCP mismanagement.

The Social Contract Frays

If the CCP were delivering on its side of the unwritten social contract with the Chinese people, then prosperity and living standards would be ever-increasing. People would be content and be more willing to spend their money rather than to save it for rainy days. Unemployment would be low across all demographic groups. And people would have children as a direct reflection of their hope for the future.

Regarding that last point, partly thanks to the CCP’s “one-child policy” (one child per family) implemented in the late 1970s through 1980s to limit China’s population growth, the communists have a major demographic problem on their hands. Despite changes to that policy and efforts to incentivize having children, there were only 9.56 million births in 2022, down 10 percent from 2021, and the lowest level on record since birth statistics were first reported by China’s National Health Commission in 1949.

There were also serious secondary effects from that “one-child policy” as China’s overall sex ratio skewed toward males over time—partly because of the tradition of preferring male children but also tied to inheritance of property and traditional responsibilities of caring for elderly parents.

The combined result has been an aging population, a declining birth rate, and a gender imbalance (approximately 30 million more men than women looking for marriage partners). China’s birth rate per 1,000 people has decreased from 46 births in 1950 to 10.64 births in 2023.

An elderly woman eating a meal in a nursing home. China's “one-child policy” and aging heighten the shortage of elder care. (Liu Jin/AFP/Getty Images)

With the increased longevity among Chinese citizens, the CCP regime has been forced to divert more economic resources to social support programs for retired Chinese. The median age for the Chinese population has increased to nearly 38 years in 2020 and is expected to reach 49 years by 2065.

China’s demographic trend creates a serious problem for the CCP. Its domestic claim to legitimacy has been increasing living standards maintained through explosive growth over the past two generations. That growth is threatened by an aging workforce, a decline in replacement workers, and the problem of ensuring improving living standards for the average Chinese.

Chinese domestic discontent is manifested by declining domestic demand and consumption and general pessimism about the future. Mr. Xi’s crackdown on the private sector over the past three years, including education, real estate, and technology industries, has resulted in record-high youth unemployment and the rise of the youth slogan “bai lan” (摆烂, or “let it rot” in English), as noted by The Guardian.

The social contract is further fractured by a “disillusionment of sorts amidst growing inequality in all spheres—rich-poor, urban-rural, agro-industrial, young-old and coastal-inland,” as noted by Medium. Throw in the culture of crass materialism fostered by the godless communists, continued internet censorship, and the widespread corruption among the CCP apparatchiks, and the result is widespread pessimism and discontent across the land.

Concluding Thoughts

The social contract is a delicate balancing act and challenge for China’s “authoritarian capitalism” model. Some have claimed that “communist economist” is an oxymoron based on past performance, with the CCP’s vaunted growth bubble bursting because of a host of self-generated problems, such as massive default risks, over-built real estate, an increasing ratio of corporate debt to GDP, a looming debt crisis, and opaque financial reporting.

No bailouts for the CCP!

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.