Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita figures offer a measure of individual wealth, and the figures are bleak. Canada’s GDP per capita has dropped to US$55,000, while in the United States it has grown to US$76,000. Meanwhile, housing affordability has hit crisis levels in many regions, and shortfalls in all services from health care to policing are pressuring citizens.
Many of the economic issues have been exacerbated by mass international migration numbers. Eager to avoid recession, the government has been bringing record numbers of international migrants into the country. While this helps shore up the national GDP as a whole, it also reduces the share of GDP per capita and increases demand for products and services, thus creating an economic cycle of disaster.
Housing costs alone aren’t what has caused the influx to Alberta, however. Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Newfoundland all offer housing for much less than Alberta does.
Economic opportunity is a big driver for people relocating within Canada. Despite over a decade of predictions that the oil and gas industry in Alberta would be phased out in favour of renewable energy options, the Alberta energy industry is as strong as ever. World demand for oil and gas products continues to rise and Alberta is eagerly expanding its ability to provide those products. Part of that expansion requires drawing labour, and Alberta has been aggressively doing so. A large segment of the workers moving to Alberta seeking opportunities in the oil and gas sector are young people. That portends well for Alberta’s long-term labour market but adds to the economic pressure on the provinces losing residents to outward migration.
Alberta’s reputation as a free-market, conservative province holds appeal for many interprovincial migrants. People wanting to start businesses are chafing under the regulatory environment of Toronto and B.C. and are willing to relocate to regions encouraging free enterprise. Rising crime and increasingly woke policies are also encouraging conservative-leaning people to seek greener pastures in Alberta.
The current pattern of interprovincial migration may be great for Alberta, but it will increase economic imbalances and threaten Canada’s already fragile sense of national unity if things don’t change.
While younger and more productive citizens bulk Alberta’s population and spur its economy, the regions they leave will have a growing demographic of older and less ambitious citizens. This will lead to decreasing productivity in the workforce and increasing demand for social services. This will bring about a heightened degree of interprovincial envy as citizens in depressed regions demand more transfers from the wealthier areas. The federal government will then be prompted to drain even more from Alberta by reducing transfers and increasing taxes on the energy industry. That will of course lead to more regional alienation in Alberta and conflicts between the provincial and federal governments.
If Canada is to avoid a demographic and economic disaster, some governments must change their ideologies quickly. International immigration numbers need to be reduced and targeted toward bringing in younger and more labour-ready migrants.
To keep productive new Canadians in Ontario and B.C., governments need to emulate the policies and attitudes of the regions attracting citizens. If they can’t, Canada’s growth and development will continue to be imbalanced until the nation fractures from the pressures.
The warning signs are clear, but it may be too late to break the cycle.
