A Crisis Deeper Than War

An analysis of a national crisis and the Iranian regime’s failure to address it.

A dried riverbed winds through an arid valley in Neyshabur, Iran, on Feb. 14, 2019. Morteza Aminoroayayi/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)

Commentary

While war and political repression dominate headlines, Iran’s most insidious threat may be beneath its citizens’ feet. Iran today faces one of the most silent yet devastating crises in its modern history: land subsidence. This creeping environmental disaster is destroying critical infrastructure, eroding arable lands, and endangering the livelihoods of millions. Unlike the immediate impact of war, this threat is slow-moving but equally existential. Combined with systemic government mismanagement and endemic corruption, land subsidence has the potential to trigger widespread displacement, ecological collapse, and even regime instability.

What Is Land Subsidence and Why Is It So Dangerous?

Land subsidence refers to the gradual sinking of the Earth’s surface, primarily caused by excessive withdrawal of groundwater. Unlike sudden natural disasters such as earthquakes, subsidence unfolds slowly and often invisibly—until its devastating effects become irreversible. The collapse of building foundations, loss of agricultural productivity, drying of wetlands, and salinization of aquifers are just a few of the catastrophic outcomes.

Iran: A Global Hotspot for Land Subsidence

Iran is among the countries most severely affected by land subsidence. In regions such as Tehran, Varamin, Mashhad, Isfahan, Hamedan, and Fars, annual subsidence rates have reached a staggering 20 to 25 centimeters. To put this in context, the global critical threshold is just 4 millimeters per year. Iran’s land is collapsing more than 60 times faster than the international danger benchmark.

A Looming Humanitarian Crisis: Forced Migration

Experts warn that if current trends continue, by 2036, an estimated 15 to 20 million Iranians could be displaced. The drivers of this mass migration include:

• The collapse of farmland due to soil degradation
• Depletion of potable and irrigation water
• Structural instability in homes and urban infrastructure
• Increased vulnerability to floods and dust storms

This internal displacement will severely stress urban infrastructure, deepen economic inequality, and elevate the potential for widespread social unrest.

Environmental and Ecological Fallout

The environmental consequences are no less alarming:

• Desertification: Once fertile agricultural zones are turning into deserts
• Dust storms: Exacerbated by deforestation and soil erosion
• Biodiversity loss: Wetlands such as Hamoun and Gavkhuni are drying up
• Water contamination: Overdrawn aquifers are increasingly salinized, reducing the availability of safe drinking water

Why Has the Regime Failed to Act?

Despite years of warnings from scientists, NGOs, and even some governmental bodies, the Iranian regime has shown little serious effort to address this crisis. The reasons are structural and political:

1. Misallocation of Resources: Environmental protection receives a fraction of the national budget, with most funding diverted to military and security apparatuses.
2. Ineffective Megaprojects: Water transfer schemes like the Behesht-Abad project often worsen regional disparities and ecological stress.
3. Lack of Scientific Governance: Decisions are driven by short-term political interests rather than data or sustainability.
4. Suppression of Experts: Environmental activists and hydrologists face censorship, arrest, or exile for raising alarms.
5. Institutional Apathy: The regime prioritizes ideological control over public welfare, with little regard for long-term national resilience.

Could Environmental Collapse Drive a regime Change?

Yes. Land subsidence is not an isolated issue; it is a glaring symbol of systemic failure. When the state can no longer guarantee the viability of life on Iran’s land, governance legitimacy dissolves. The environmental crisis reflects a deeper political one: the regime’s inability or unwillingness to protect the nation’s most fundamental resources.