Chinese Economist’s Death Revives Account of Official Warning Over His Remarks

A former chief economist said an official singled out Gao Shanwen in 2018, months after controversial accounts of his U.S.–China speech circulated online.

A member of the People’s Armed Police stands at the entrance of the National People’s Congress at the Great Hall of the People during delegation meetings in Beijing on March 6, 2024. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

The death of Gao Shanwen, one of China’s most closely watched market economists, who was known for questioning the communist regime’s economic narrative, has prompted a former colleague to recount an official warning delivered before a room of chief economists in late 2018.

The official singled out Gao and invoked instructions from “the leadership” to tighten control over his public comments, according to Lin Caiyi, former chief economist at Guotai Junan Securities and Huaan Funds.

Lin said the confrontation occurred during a winter meeting in a conference room on Beijing’s Financial Street, a district that is home to many of China’s major financial institutions and regulators.

“The leadership has been tolerant enough toward you,” Lin recalled the unnamed official telling Gao. “We have been instructed to strengthen guidance over your remarks.”

Lin’s memorial account appeared on her Xiaohongshu account, according to a screenshot reproduced by Toronto-based financial commentator Jeff Li, and was later republished by Chinese financial media.

The Epoch Times has not independently identified the official, the agency involved, or the source of the purported leadership instruction.

Lin described the gathering as a nominal meeting of chief economists in which only the official spoke while everyone else remained silent.

Afterward, she recalled joking with Gao on the street outside, “When are you going to buy us drinks to compensate us for losing our freedom of expression?”

Gao sighed and shook his head without replying, Lin wrote.

Gao died on July 7 at age 55. According to media reports, a Hong Kong hospital diagnosed him with stage IV T-cell lymphoma in December.

No public announcement from Gao’s family was found and no former employer could be reached for comment as of July 10.

Speech Draws Controversy

The meeting Lin described came several months after Gao spoke at a July 28, 2018, event marking the 30th anniversary of Shanxi Securities.

A lengthy account said to have been prepared from a recording spread widely online. It attributed unusually direct warnings to Gao about Beijing’s handling of relations with the United States and the consequences for China if the conflict deepened.

The circulated text said China’s reform-era development had depended heavily on political accommodation with Washington and warned that deteriorating relations could affect China’s fortunes for 30 to 50 years.

It also attributed to Gao a comparison between the strategic choices facing current Chinese leadership and those made by Deng Xiaoping at the beginning of the reform era.

Whether the current leadership possessed similar strategic judgment, the account said, would be determined by history rather than official self-praise.

The published version identified the text as having been prepared by the “Economist Circle” account from a recording of Gao’s remarks.

Gao did not deny attending the event or giving a speech.

A clarification circulated afterward said the online notes and interpretations had not been reviewed by him and contained “a large number of misunderstandings and misrecordings.”

The clarification did not identify the disputed passages individually. It instead directed readers to a formal written version of an April 11 speech Gao delivered at Qinghua University.

In that earlier address, Gao focused on the structural roots of the U.S.–China conflict, warning that investment, technology transfers, and movement of people could shift from integration toward separation.

The available record does not establish whether Gao issued the later clarification voluntarily, under direct pressure, or as an act of self-protection.

Lin did not say whether the official at the winter meeting was responding to the Shanxi speech, another statement, or his wider record of commentary.

Self-Censorship

Fear-driven self-censorship is well documented in China.

A comparative study published in the British Journal of Political Science found consistently high levels of self-censorship in China.

The Congressional-Executive Commission on China has described how vague restrictions, licensing controls, and selective punishment can impose prior restraints before authorities issue a public prohibition against a particular statement.

That research provides context for Lin’s account of an official later invoking instructions from “the leadership” to place Gao’s remarks under stronger “guidance.”

Lin wrote that she viewed the meeting as a turning point, after which economists’ public comments and market judgments were brought under closer official control.

Questioning China’s Growth Figures

Gao again attracted scrutiny in late 2024 after challenging Beijing’s economic narrative.

At a Dec. 3 investment conference in Shenzhen, he described Chinese society as divided among energetic retirees, dispirited young people, and exhausted middle-aged workers.

Videos and written accounts of the remarks were removed from Chinese platforms, and social-media accounts associated with Gao were reportedly restricted.

Nine days later, Gao appeared at a Washington forum jointly hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the China Finance 40 Forum.

The institute’s official event record and video list Gao as a participant in a panel on the U.S. and Chinese economic outlook.

Gao said China’s true growth rate was not known and described his alternative figure as his own speculation.

He estimated that real growth had averaged about 2 percent during the previous two or three years, rather than the official figure near 5 percent.

“If my speculation is correct,” Gao said, growth of 3 percent to 4 percent might be a more reasonable expectation over the following three to five years.

The Wall Street Journal reported in January 2025, citing people familiar with the matter, that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had ordered an investigation of Gao and directed authorities to discipline him.

The report said Gao was barred from speaking publicly for an unspecified period but was initially allowed to retain his position.

Chinese authorities and Gao’s employer, SDIC Securities, did not publicly confirm that account.

Final Public Record

Gao appeared by video at the welcome dinner for the 2025 Beijing University Global Financial Forum in Singapore.

A university report said the dinner took place on Sept. 18 and identified Gao as president of the Beijing University Financial Alumni Association.

It is the last publicly documented appearance located by The Epoch Times.

Chinese financial outlets reported in November 2025 that Gao had left SDIC Securities after about 18 years with the firm and its predecessor, Anxin Securities. SDIC Securities did not publicly explain the circumstances of his departure.

In her memorial, Lin wrote that the grief spreading through China’s financial community was not only for Gao.

It was also, she said, mourning for “the end of an era in which views could be expressed freely.”