China’s Q1 Economic Rebound Faces Rough Seas as Iran War Jolts Global Outlook

Workers work on a production line, manufacturing tank containers at a factory in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China, on April 7, 2025. cnsphoto via Reuters

BEIJING/SINGAPORE—China’s economy picked up speed early in 2026, riding an export surge before the Iran war sent energy costs soaring and put global demand—vital to Beijing’s growth ambitions—at risk.

The 5.0 percent year-on-year pace in the first quarter sits at the top of China’s full-year target range of 4.5–5.0 percent, highlighting a resilience that sets it apart from much of Asia, helped by ample strategic oil reserves and a diversified energy mix.