As We Approach 2024’s Mid-Point, Nvidia Keeps Leading the Way

Nvidia stock more than tripled in value for the year-to-date through early November. Dreamstime/TNS

Commentary

Nvidia surged to a new all-time high last Thursday, reaching as high as $140 per share on the opening, or nearly $3.5 trillion market cap. Nvidia tripled in the last 12 months, but the ride has been volatile. Nvidia is expected to remain strong since its weighting will be boosted in the Select Technology SPDR ETF (XLK) to 21%, up from 6% on June 14th. The primary casualty is Apple, whose weight is expected to be reduced from 22% to only 4.5%. Last week was odd since most holiday-shortened weeks are closed on Mondays, but Juneteenth fell on a Wednesday. As a result, light trading volume characterized most days last week, but options expiration day on Friday got pretty wild, with the option “tail” wagging the dog on stocks with heavy call option trading. This Friday, the annual Russell realignment will be finalized, so many stocks added to the Russell indices may “pop” on Monday. Meanwhile, the cyberattack on CDK, which supplies software to car dealers, energized cyber security stocks like CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Alarum Technologies (ALAR). ALAR was a good near-term buy after it sold off on Tuesday on an announcement that its short interest declined to 4.7% of its outstanding shares. The benchmark 10-year Treasury rate sank to near 4.2% on Friday which underlines my long-time belief that bond traders (or “vigilantes”) determine interest rates more than the Fed.