Will We See 5%, 6% or Even 8% GDP Growth in 2026?

We are in the midst of the strongest economic growth we will witness in our lifetimes and 2026 will go down as the strongest year for GDP growth ever recorded.

Ships are docked at the Port of Long Beach in Long Beach, Calif., on Feb. 20, 2026. Damian Dovarganes/AP Photo

Commentary

At a Mar-a-Lago dinner recently, I had the opportunity to chat with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. I told him about my 5% GDP projection, and I was surprised to hear Howard raise the bar to 6%, only to be upstaged by President Trump’s prediction of 15% growth, made on Fox Business with Larry Kudlow. We briefly discussed how 15% is likely “a bar too high,” but Howard reassured me 6% GDP growth this year is very possible.