Despite a slight 0.2 percent dip in national home sales in August, real estate professionals nationwide remain cautiously optimistic about the fall market, which officially began on Sept. 22.
The inventory remained basically unchanged from July, with a decline of just 1.3 percent. However, compared with August 2024, inventory rose by 11.7 percent.
Home prices continued to climb for the 26th consecutive month year over year, with the median price reaching $422,600.
“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in the report.
“However, mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”
Jim Nabors, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, told The Epoch Times that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious, even in light of its recent interest rate cut announcement.
“[Fed] Chairman [Jerome] Powell has emphasized that decisions will continue to be made ‘meeting by meeting’ based on incoming data,” Nabors said.
However, he is hopeful about the fall market, as well as the fourth quarter, as the National Association of Mortgage Brokers has witnessed an increase in mortgage applications, particularly for refinancing.
“Lower rates will drive the nation to a more balanced market position, and the industry is beginning to transition from a seller’s market,” he said.
Nabors said he believes that inventory growth will also create more options for buyers.
“Those borrowers who previously may have felt priced out of the market may come back around,” he said.
“The market is already showing signs of better balance, which can benefit both buyers and existing homeowners looking to refinance.”
NAR senior economist Nadia Evangelou said the group predicts that mortgage rates will continue to decrease slightly by the end of the year, which should trigger more households to buy homes.
Midwestern States
Regionally, the NAR said the Midwest was the best-performing area in August, with a 2.1 percent hike in month-over-month sales. Median home prices stood at $330,500, up by 4.5 percent from August 2024.Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, forecasted a more robust fall and fourth quarter.
“If interest rates continue to stabilize, I think we’ll start to see more movement in the market,” she told The Epoch Times.
With an overall median sales price of $360,000 for both single-family homes and condos in the city, condominium sales are up in September and are selling faster than single-family residences, according to Villegas.
“Condos are a very real possibility not only for younger first-time buyers but for those who are looking to downsize,” she said.
However, single-family home inventory in Chicago is still a big challenge.
“We just don’t have the inventory that we need to fill the needs of the market—especially for first-time homebuyers,” she said.
Villegas noted that bidding wars are still a reality in both the city and suburban areas.
“We recently had a deal with 11 offers on a property,” she said. “Depending on the house and the location, we’re still seeing over-asking offers of anywhere between $5,000 and $30,000.”
While there is some new construction, Chicago and its suburbs have limited land available.
“We desperately need new construction, and the City Council will be voting on laws about accessory dwelling units this month,” Villegas said.
Western States
The West experienced a 1.4 percent month-over-month growth in sales in August, with the median price reaching $624,300—an increase of 0.6 percent from August 2024.Christy Walker, president of the Phoenix Association of Realtors, told The Epoch Times that she’s also optimistic about the remainder of the year.
“Our pending sales are up, and our local lenders tell us that mortgage applications are also increasing,” she said.
As of September, Phoenix commanded a median price of $471,000, and in other suburban areas of Arizona, such as Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, and Chandler, the median price was $510,000, according to Walker.
Local residents who are first-time buyers or even move-up buyers often find themselves competing with Californians and Midwesterners who are looking to move to a warmer climate. Canadians also continue to purchase vacation properties in the area.
The biggest challenge facing Phoenix-area real estate professionals is the continual construction of build-to-rent communities.
“Arizona is number one in the country for this type of model, and a lot of people may be getting stuck in these communities,” Walker said.
“Initially, they may choose to move in if they can’t afford to buy, but if they don’t start to save, they could end up as a perpetual renter.”
Southern States
The NAR reported a 1.1 percent decrease in month-over-month sales for the U.S. southern region, where the median price in August was up by 0.4 percent from July, to $364,100.Johnny Mowad, president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors in Texas’s greater Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area, is convinced that the fall market and the fourth quarter will remain strong.
“Dallas is already booming, and this is the first time in decades that inventory has surged, especially in the suburbs,” he told The Epoch Times.
“The days of bidding wars on every home are fading and we’re seeing a market that looks more balanced.”
New construction in the region is also contributing to the inventory burst, according to Mowad, and buyers are beginning to have the upper hand. In Dallas County, inventory is up by 24 percent since August, and in nearby Collin County, by 40 percent.
While Dallas sellers are now more willing to negotiate on prices, the market has not yet seen any significant price drops. As of September, the median price for a single-family home in Dallas County is $365,000—a 2 percent increase over August.
Mowad, a broker with Ebby Halliday Realtors in Dallas, expects the current momentum to continue into the fall and the fourth quarter.
“Even with negotiations, sellers are still getting great prices on their homes and they’re definitely going to see a positive return on their investments,” he said.
Jonathan Lickstein, president of Broward, Palm Beach, and St. Lucie Realtors in Florida, told The Epoch Times that loan applications have risen by about 18 percent. He said that with interest rates beginning to stabilize, he believes that the area will continue to see an influx of local buyers and those from out of state in the coming months.
“Single-family homes in our region have experienced longer days on the market, but homes are continuing to maintain their value,” he said. “Sellers are negotiating, but most are still closing at 97 percent of the list price.”
Currently, Miami-Dade County commands the highest median price at $660,000 for single-family homes, followed by Broward County at $625,000, Palm Beach County at $613,000, and St. Lucie County at $385,000, according to Lickstein.
The biggest challenge for the rest of the year, he noted, is the condo market, which continues to suffer from the fallout of the 2021 Champlain Towers condo collapse in Surfside, Florida. Billed as one of the worst disasters in the United States, the building collapse killed almost 100 people.
As a result, Lickstein said, condos built before 2005 are now subject to recurring inspections and repairs, which in many cases are forcing owners to incur huge payments for assessments.
“The newer buildings are not as impacted with this, but overall, the new regulations have seriously hurt the condo market,” he said.
Lickstein, chief operating officer of LoKation Real Estate in Pompano Beach, Florida, expects little change in the condo market through the end of the year. Condo prices are down all over, with Miami-Dade County’s median at $406,000, followed by Palm Beach County at $300,000, St. Lucie County at $282,000, and Broward County at $265,000, he said.
Evangelou noted that both Texas and Florida lead the nation in single-family home inventory.
Northeastern States
The Northeast experienced the biggest decline for month-over-month sales in August, at 4 percent, but the median price grew by 6.2 percent from August 2024, to $534,200.
Bianca D’Alessio, a broker with Nest Seekers International in the New York City borough of Manhattan, told The Epoch Times that the New York City market remains very active.
“There’s been a huge uptick and increased buyer confidence,” she said. “There’s an anticipation about the interest rates coming down further and buyers who have been looking for a long time are feeling that now is the time to get in.”
A new residential building in midtown Manhattan that D’Alessio is representing has already brought in hundreds of showings. Studio apartments are listed at $400,000 and one-bedrooms at $650,000. These are considered “affordable” by Manhattan standards, according to D’Alessio.
“The first open house had 90 people lined up to see the units in this walk-up building with no amenities,” she said.
Bidding wars are still common depending on the building and location, D’Alessio said. New York City’s boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens are equally as active.
NAR Buyer Profiles
The NAR report indicates that first-time homebuyers made up 28 percent of August sales, a jump from 26 percent in August 2024. Of all buyer transactions, 28 percent were in cash, and 21 percent involved individual investors or second-home buyers. Only 2 percent were distressed sales from foreclosures or short sales.Evangelou said that although she believes that the next few months will be more prosperous for potential homebuyers, Realtors, and mortgage professionals, she said affordability is still an issue that needs to be solved before creating a truly balanced market.
“Nationally, middle-income buyers with a household income of $75,000 can afford only 21 percent of existing homes,” she said.
“There have been some gains in affordable housing, but we need that number to be closer to 50 percent.”
