NAR Projects US Home Sales to Jump by 14 Percent in 2026

The organization attributes the expected rebound to declining mortgage rates, continued job gains, and improved market stability.

Townhouse for sale in Elkridge, Md., on Sept. 27, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has predicted a good year for home sales in 2026, noting that sales nationwide could increase by as much as 14 percent.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, released his predictions during the Nov. 14 Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum held in Houston.

“Next year is really the year that we will see a measurable increase in sales,” Yun said in a statement. “Home prices nationwide are in no danger of declining.”

Yun attributes the expected rebound to declining mortgage rates, continued job gains, and improved market stability. NAR also forecasts that home prices will increase by 4 percent next year, as demand for homes still exceeds the current supply.

NAR predicts that mortgage rates will continue to drop slowly, averaging about 6 percent for next year.

“As we go into next year, the mortgage rate will be a little bit better,” Yun said. “It’s not going to be a big decline, but it will be a modest decline that will improve affordability.”

Bankrate reported that the average rate on a 30-year mortgage dipped to 6.29 percent as of Nov. 13, representing nearly the lowest percentage since early October 2024.

“The government shutdown ended this week, which means the resumption of crucial economic data that helps determine rates,” Bankrate’s report states.

“If that data indicates a weakening job market, for example, that could push rates even lower.”

According to Yun, buyers seeking affordable options will find them in regions where housing supply is growing, particularly in the South and West, where new construction is more abundant. Yun said he believes that this will create a winning situation for first-time homebuyers.

“Houston is creating more home construction, and therefore making home prices much more reasonable,” Yun said.

“Given the job creation, buyers will inevitably be showing up to Houston once the mortgage rate goes down.”

Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, noted that the typical age of all homebuyers is currently 59 and that for repeat buyers it is 62. She said the main reason older adults are moving now is to be closer to family and friends.

“I call this the grandbaby effect,“ Lautz said. ”This is a different type of buyer.”

In a recent report, NAR revealed that the share of first-time buyers had dropped to an all-time low of 21 percent, with a new high median age of 40.

“The biggest struggle first-time buyers have is finding an affordable property, and many of them struggle to save for a down payment,” Lautz said.

“The biggest source of pain that they are citing is high rent and student loan debt.”

Lautz, who also presented at the Houston forum, discussed data from NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, covering the period from July 2024 to June 2025.

The profile found that 61 percent of all homebuyers were married couples, 21 percent were single women, and 9 percent were single men.

Among first-time buyers, 25 percent were single women and 10 percent were single men. The share of married couples purchasing homes was 50 percent, while the share of couples with children younger than 18 dropped to an all-time low of 24 percent.

The median down payment for first-time buyers was 10 percent, which matches the highest level recorded since 1989. Nearly 60 percent of payment sources came from personal savings, while others relied on financial assets such as 401(k) plans, stocks, or loans from family or friends.

On the selling side, the median time people spent in their homes before selling was 11 years, an all-time high. More than 50 percent purchased a newer home and almost 35 percent bought a larger home. The median distance moved was 30 miles, down slightly from 35 miles last year.