NAR Predicts Top 10 Housing Hot Spots for 2026—Most Have Strong Millennial Presence

The association also forecast existing home sales to increase by 14 percent in the coming year.

A house for sale in San Anselmo, Calif., on March 22, 2023. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecast sunny skies for the real estate market next year in its recent report, predicting a 14 percent increase in existing home sales. The report identified the country’s top 10 housing markets for 2026, most of which are magnets for millennials.

“After three years of flat home sales, a solid double-digit percentage increase is expected in 2026,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said. “In 2026, we expect higher inventory, modest improvements in affordability, and more accommodating monetary policy from the Federal Reserve will help more Americans buy their next home.”

NAR estimates that home prices will continue to rise by about 4 percent, while mortgage rates are expected to drop toward 6 percent.

According to Yun, lower mortgage rates combined with higher inventory will attract buyers back to the market in 2026. If, for example, rates were to drop to 6 percent—a substantial decline from close to 7 percent in January 2025—it could expand the pool of qualified home buyers by 5.5 million households.

Top 10 Housing Markets for 2026

Meanwhile, NAR named the country’s top 10 housing markets for 2026 among metro areas with populations greater than 250,000, based on factors that include buyer eligibility at lower mortgage rates; improvements in inventory, income, and job growth; domestic migration as a share of the population; and overall affordability.

“The top 10 housing hot spots for 2026 have a combination of strong demand potential, projected improvements in affordability, and, most critically, a housing stock that matches the budgets of the buyers who are returning to the market,” Yun said.

Five Southern metro areas made the list: Charleston, South Carolina; Charlotte, North Carolina; Raleigh, North Carolina; Richmond, Virginia; and Jacksonville, Florida.

According to the report, Charleston is a fast-growing market in which inventory is climbing and millennial households represent 36 percent of all households.

“Markets with a strong base of younger households have more built-in demand as rates fall,” the report states.

The city’s income growth is 6 percent higher than in 2024, and net domestic in-migration accounts for 1.3 percent of the total population.

In Charlotte, income growth is 5.8 percent above that of 2024 and millennials now make up more than 36 percent of all households. The region is described as a “magnet” for millennials and high-skilled job growth.

Not only has Raleigh improved in affordable inventory, but its income growth is 6.3 percent higher than that of the previous year. Nearly 40 percent of the city’s households are made up of millennials.

Jobs in Richmond have grown by 2.1 percent from 2024 and the region also offers a better match between home prices and incomes.

Jacksonville has been flagged as a market in which both affordability and inventory are improving. The metro has experienced a 1.1 percent positive domestic migration.

Columbus, Ohio; Indianapolis; and Minneapolis–St. Paul, Minnesota, are the Midwest’s top real estate markets predicted for 2026.

Indianapolis is slated to offer “one of the clearest affordability paths for 2026 buyers.” With 37 percent of households made up of millennials, the metro area also saw nearly 5 percent more mortgage originations in 2025 than in 2024.

NAR named the Minneapolis–St. Paul metro as one of the nation’s “most responsive markets to lower rates.” The region offers a favorable alignment between home prices and incomes and saw 5.7 percent more mortgage originations in 2025 than in 2024. The report states that the metro could host an additional 81,000 households with qualifications for a median-priced home at 6 percent mortgage rates.

Salt Lake City and Spokane, Washington, were the only two Western metros to make the top 10 list.

Salt Lake City offers one of the nation’s youngest demographics in a fast-growing and rate-sensitive area. Millennials make up nearly 41 percent of all households in the city. Income growth is 6.5 percent compared with 2024 and job growth is nearly 2 percent higher.

The report also states that Salt Lake City’s home listings are increasingly better aligned with local incomes.

Described as “one of the few Western metros where both affordability and inventory are trending in the right direction,” Spokane has seen nearly 16 percent income growth from 2024. NAR research also indicates that listings in the city are more aligned with local incomes and that mortgage originations have risen by 4.3 percent over 2024.

Mortgage Interest Rate Reality

National speaker and real estate coach Brian Buffini told The Epoch Times that he agrees with NAR’s predictions for 2026 but said that buyers need to be more realistic when it comes to mortgage interest rates.

“Those rates are never coming back to 3 [percent] and 4 percent like they did during the [COVID-19] pandemic,” he said. “That was an artificially created market. If the rates stay close to 6 percent or lower, I think we’ll see the return of the traditional spring market next year.”

Buffini owns Buffini & Co., a leading real estate coaching and training firm.

Buffini said he believes that if rates actually dip below 6 percent, about 10 percent of the nation’s renters would become active home shoppers.

He also noted other issues that could further balance the market, including upgrading the capital gains tax laws and restricting the amount of corporate investor home ownership.

The current law allows single sellers to exclude up to $250,000 of profit and married sellers up to $500,000 of profit before being subjected to taxes. However, Buffini said that since home prices have doubled or even tripled in many regions of the country, sellers would still face significant taxes on their profits from home sales.

In July, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) introduced the No Tax on Home Sales Act, a bill that would eliminate capital gains taxes on the sale of a home. An earlier bipartisan bill, the More Homes on the Market Act, proposes extending the sales gain tax exclusion to $500,000 for single sellers and $1 million for married sellers.

“California homeowners face some of the highest housing costs in the nation, and the looming capital gains taxes are causing so many homeowners to be reluctant to put their properties on the market,” Buffini said.

Noting NAR statistics on America’s median home seller age of 64, Buffini said most seniors decide on selling to either downsize or move closer to family.

“Older people often want to live closer to their children and grandchildren,” he said. “In many cases, they all invest together in multigenerational housing like a two-family residence.”

Regarding NAR’s top 2026 market picks, Buffini said he agrees that many metros that previously saw high price appreciation are now beginning to flatten out.

“People are beginning to discover different cities as they chase affordability,” he said.

Top 20 Places to Rent in 2026

For those who are still not ready to buy, Rent Cafe has just rolled out its list of the top 20 places to rent in 2026. The Most Livable Metro Areas report ranks 149 U.S. metros using three key categories: socioeconomics, quality of life, and location and community.

Although the Midwest dominated the list regionally, Washington ranked as the country’s most livable metro. Portland, Maine, took second place, and Kansas City, Missouri, took third place.

The report states that the nation’s capital ranked first in quality of life, location, and community because of its recent revitalization efforts with more than $10.2 billion in new residential and commercial developments. In addition to historic landmarks, plentiful health care providers, and access to green spaces, Washington renters have access to more than 2,000 professional membership associations.

However, rents may not necessarily be considered affordable. Rent Cafe lists the average rent in the nation’s capital at $2,498 per month, with studios averaging $1,890 and one-bedroom units at $2,362.

In addition to a steady job market, income gains, and low unemployment, Portland also offers an arts district, farmers markets, and an enviable food scene with some 230 restaurants per 10,000 residents.

Portland rents range from a monthly $1,642 for a studio apartment to $2,026 for a two-bedroom. In Kansas City, by comparison, apartment hunters have much more affordable options. Studios rent for a little more than $1,000 per month, while one-bedrooms can be leased for $1,200. Three-bedroom apartments are available for less than $2,000 per month.

Rounding out the list of the top five livable metros are Des Moines, Iowa, and Ann Arbor, Michigan.

Des Moines offers studio apartments at an average of $880 per month and one-bedrooms at $1,020. Ann Arbor rents skew higher, with the average monthly lease for a one-bedroom at $1,635.

Boise, Idaho, took the 10th spot because of its numerous parks, economic opportunities, and low unemployment rate. Renters can lease a one-bedroom apartment for an average of $1,487 per month, while three bedrooms come in at a little less than $2,000.

Seattle and Spokane, Washington, along with Colorado Springs, Colorado, and Fort Collins, Colorado, were the only other Western metros to make the top 20 list.

Notable Northeast metros on the list include Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, and Pittsburgh, along with Manchester, New Hampshire.

Southern metros on the list include Asheville, North Carolina, and Wilmington, North Carolina.